I think you totally missed David’s point. He is verbalizing the arguments that will be made to diminish any momentum for progress that exists. Predicting weather is hard and predicting climate is worse. I believe David knows that.
-gene From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mike MacCracken Sent: Sunday, September 20, 2009 1:18 PM To: David Schnare Cc: Geoengineering Subject: [geo] Re: NYTimes.com: No Climate Change Leader as Nations Prepare to Meet Dear David— In addition to not understanding how praising and being encouraged by a reduction in fossil fuel emissions that has been occurring and being encouraged about trends for greater production of renewables is some how “far left center”--it would seem to make one think that those disagreeing with him are not only figuratively fossilized—I do not see how you can possibly justify the statements in your last paragraph. Just because the coverage in September was not a new low record does not at all mean that the “Arctic ice is on the mend.” And asserting that global temperature and ocean heat content are “on a level path” with such a short record is extremely dubious (see the recent supplement to the AMS’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society called something like Climate 2008)--something constantly pointed out to those of us generally in agreement with the IPCC synthesis of the science. And making a 7 to 15 year forecast is even more dubious, much as I hope it will be the case (and for reasons other than that global emissions of SO2 from tall stacks are again headed up sharply due to the new coal plants coming on line in Asia, which would only be temporarily hiding the ultimate warming). Mike On 9/20/09 12:32 PM, "David Schnare" <[email protected]> wrote: Come on, Mike. Those of us who have been listening to Lester Brown's views for the past 35 years knows that he has always usedthe "I'm the authority" voice regardless as to whether he is any kind of authority. Les has done no better job than anyone else in picking winners over the years and he has always picked a far left of center choice. Fact is, the EU wants to follow the Koyto structure and the US does not. The folks attempting to frame the Copenhagen accord are now saying that it is going to take until at least 2014 to get the framework together, especially in light of the China and India refusals to play fair and Russia claiming that the US (and Western Europe) should pay for all carbon reduction in the developing world, which apparently is where it now places itself. The U.S is not going to do that. And then there's the development of Cap and Trade. This week Reid walked away from legislation this year. He can't get it done next year because it is too expensive for an election year. That means we are looking at a U.S. cap and trade bill no sooner than 2011. We will see some kind of energy bill, but not cap and trade. In the mean time, EPA will continue down its regulatory path, and I know democratic senators looking for a way to limit the damage EPA will do under the Clean Air Act, as it is. The only saving grace is that arctic ice is on the mend and global temperatures (more importantly, global heat content) is on a level path and probably will remain so for another 7 to 15 years. d. On Sun, Sep 20, 2009 at 11:31 AM, Mike MacCracken <[email protected]> wrote: No disrespect intended, but I would suggest that, given his career and past accomplishments and efforts, Lester Brown’s views (see http://www.earth-policy.org/) merits a great deal of consideration. Mike MacCracken *** On 9/20/09 10:41 AM, "[email protected] <http://[email protected]> " <[email protected] <http://[email protected]> > wrote: This is total BS. His last line gives it away. We are not walking anywhere. We ride. “Stabilizing the earth's climate is a complex undertaking and fraught with risk. If the United States leads -- and does so boldly -- I believe the world will follow.” What value is the author’s belief; just another blowhard? Why should the world follow the U.S.; they got out of that habit some time ago because we are no more than big BS artists like the author. In any case they do not have the money to follow. The current reasons for reduced oil consumption are the economy and cost of oil. Longer term we will focus on security and cost of foreign involvement. It is politics and it has little to do with good sense. If we could harness the hot air coming out of Washington and from authors like this we would have all the energy we need. His statement about electric vehicles is insanity. The electric power cost for an electric car is 3-4 cents per mile. The battery replacement cost for the batteries, (limited deep discharge cycles; a cost not associated with other motive sources), is 37.5 cents per mile so anyone using an EV is really paying 40 cents per mile versus 12 cents per mile (equivalent to gasoline at $1.25 a gallon) with a Prius. And if we were really serious we could halve that using a hybrid with a gas turbine generator getting 100 mpg. The technology has been proven. From: [email protected] <http://[email protected]> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Mike MacCracken Sent: Sunday, September 20, 2009 9:56 AM To: Peter Read; Geoengineering Subject: [geo] Re: NYTimes.com: No Climate Change Leader as Nations Prepare to Meet The situation is hopefully not quite so hopeless. See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/18/AR2009091801143.html On Energy, We're Finally Walking the Walk By Lester R. Brown Sunday, September 20, 2009 Mike *** On 9/20/09 6:58 AM, "Peter Read" <[email protected] <http://[email protected]> > wrote: E-Mail This <http://www.nytimes.com/> <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/science/earth&pos=TopRight-EmailThis&sn2=65192d3/561f2559&sn1=dcb1d65c/835343f3&camp=foxsearch2009_emailtools_1011077b_nyt5&ad=Adam_88x31_b_nowplaying&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2FAdam> &opzn&page=www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/science/earth&pos=TopRight-EmailThis&sn2=65192d3/561f2559&sn1=dcb1d65c/835343f3&camp=foxsearch2009_emailtools_1011077b_nyt5&ad=Adam_88x31_b_nowplaying&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2FAdam> This page was sent to you by: [email protected] <http://[email protected]> Message from sender: more cheerful stuff Peter SCIENCE / ENVIRONMENT | September 20, 2009 No Climate Change Leader as Nations Prepare to Meet <http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/science/earth/20nations.html?emc=eta1> By NEIL MacFARQUHAR As nations gather for a major summit meeting on climate change, none want to take the lead in fighting for significant international targets. 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