Interesting. So, 2 C above preindustrial is the official goal by the leaders. We have warmed by 0.8 C, so that means we have about 1.2 C to go. Convert that by multiplying by 1.8, and that gives a bit over 2 F to go from present warming. I guess the larger number makes people think we have a bit more room available.
Only trouble is, of course, that given present GHG concentrations in absence of the SO2 cooling offset that would go away virtually immediately if we stopped emissions from coal-fired plants, we would be at forcing of about 2.7 W/m2 (so 1.6 net that IPCC gives plus 1.1 for aerosol forcing), and if climate sensitivity is 0.75 C per W/m2 (and it may be higher, or maybe lower), that gives an equilibrium warming of 2 C (though, of course, if all emissions stopped, there would be a downward drift‹but if we hold that forcing constant, we are at 2 C plus or minus. Best, Mike On 9/20/09 9:39 PM, "Manu Sharma" <[email protected]> wrote: > From the NYT article linked below: > >> Fundamentally, although limiting the temperature rise to 2 degrees Fahrenheit >> is an accepted goal, there is no consensus on how to get there. This 2-degree >> Fahrenheit rise is the equivalent of the original goal of 2 degrees Celsius >> above the planet¹s temperature just before the Industrial Revolution. > > ??????? > > How did this go past the editors at The New York Times? > > - Manu > > On Sun, Sep 20, 2009 at 4:28 PM, <[email protected]> wrote: >> <http://www.nytimes.com/> >> <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytime >> s.com/yr/mo/day/science/earth&pos=TopRight-EmailThis&sn2=65192d3/561f2559&sn1 >> =dcb1d65c/835343f3&camp=foxsearch2009_emailtools_1011077b_nyt5&ad=Adam_88x31_ >> b_nowplaying&goto=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Efoxsearchlight%2Ecom%2FAdam> >> This page was sent to you by: [email protected] Message from sender: >> more cheerful stuff Peter >> >> SCIENCE / ENVIRONMENT | September 20, 2009 >> No Climate Change Leader as Nations Prepare to Meet >> <http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/science/earth/20nations.html?emc=eta1> >> By NEIL MacFARQUHAR >> As nations gather for a major summit meeting on climate change, none want to >> take the lead in fighting for significant international targets. >> >> Advertisement >> >> Amelia stars two-time Academy Award winner Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart, >> the legendary aviatrix. Directed by Mira Nair. >> Click here to view trailer >> <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytime >> s.com/yr/mo/day/science/earth&pos=Center1&sn2=48422044/176b9274&sn1=caf97136/ >> 2ae70fcf&camp=foxsearch2009_emailtools_1011077g-nyt5&ad=amelia_g_120x60&goto= >> http://www.foxsearchlight.com/amelia> >> <http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&opzn&page=www.nytime >> s.com/yr/mo/day/science/earth&pos=Center1&sn2=48422044/176b9274&sn1=caf97136/ >> 2ae70fcf&camp=foxsearch2009_emailtools_1011077g-nyt5&ad=amelia_g_120x60&goto= >> http://www.foxsearchlight.com/amelia> >> >> >> Copyright 2009 <http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/copyright.html> >> The New York Times Company <http://www.nytco.com/> | Privacy Policy >> <http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/help/privacy.html> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
