Peter
It may be possible to use one run of a climate model to get an
everywhere-to-everywhere transfer function for the effects of cloud
albedo spray. If several different models can agree then we should be
able to get the probability that a climate event has been caused by the
intervention or by chance.
The technique runs the climate models with pseudo-random changes of
spray from ON to OFF and then correlates the spray pattern with model
results at different places in the world. It looks as though a single
run can identify the transfer function to better than 2 % of the natural
variation. This will tell us where we should, and more importantly
SHOULD NOT spray.
I hope shortly to release an example of how it works in a simulated
extraction of small signals from a real climate record and will then be
trying to get climate modelers to use it.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design
School of Engineering and Electronics
University of Edinburgh
Mayfield Road
Edinburgh EH9 3JL
Scotland
tel +44 131 650 5704
fax +44 131 650 5702
Mobile 07795 203 195
[email protected]
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs
p.j.irvine wrote:
It is likely that any SRM geoengineering intervention will create
winners and losers and some nations may always be against any
intervention whatsoever.
Gregory Benford raised the issue of reaching agreement on the global
scale and how problematic it would be. If for example the arctic
council of nations agreed to initiate a decade-long field trial to
cool the arctic by 1 C, how could they deal with complaints from
nations who felt that this experiment had induced a negative change in
their climate?
In any given year there are floods, droughts, heatwaves, etc. but
during this field trial a fraction of these events would be attributed
(rightly or wrongly, partially or fully) to the intervention. Two
questions arise:
Could it be determined if any changes in the climate (outside of the
target area) had occurred as a result of the intervention during a 10
year trial?
How would aggrieved nations or peoples seek reparations for perceived
negative impacts (scientifically proven or otherwise)?
best regards,
Pete Irvine
PhD student
School of Geographical Sciences
University of Bristol
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