Greg raises some interesting points on the political settlement needed for an effective geoengineering programme to occur.
I've come across Klein-like thinking a lot in the environmental movement. Recently, I've heard it described as "watermelon politics": ie apparently green - but actually red, with a thin green skin. It's a prevalent attitude among geoengineering opponents. Once you have a name for something, it's easier to spot it. I've found the watermelon label very helpful in spotting phony environmentalist thinking. I can't count the number of times I've had to endure people arguing that the only way you can save the planet is to have a second crack at Communism (but strangely they never name it as such). This is one of the reasons I left the 'green' movement. It's become dominated by washed up socialists who are all out of ideas, and use a green veneer to flog their tired old statist ideology. We can clearly see from history that nominally socialist republics deliver neither social justice (preferring autocracy) nor environmental responsibility (preferring the voices of the party and industrial elite to the voices of those affected by environmental degradation). Since studying economics at school I've been able to see that it's more typically market failure (ie not pricing pollution) than failure of the market system itself, which is the problem in capitalism's treatment of the environment. Calling for sound economic interventions, and shutting out the favoured lobbyists from the decision making process, is much more effective at delivering real environmental change than is calling for the overthrow of the entire political-economic system. However, we must also be cautious of the equally weak arguments of the right. As exemplified by freakonomics thinking, they commonly argue for unfettered consumption, with geoengineering deployment as a band aid solution. This is bad science, and politics which is based on bad science is bad politics. Extremist geoengineering stances therefore suit those on both extremes of the political spectrum. To achieve affected environmental policy on geoengineering, we must resist extremists' attempts to Hijack the debate. A On Oct 30, 2013 1:28 AM, "Greg Rau" <gh...@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > Further exploration of social revolution as the solution, to the apparent > exclusion of technology including GE, by influential Naomi Klein. > "...there is still time to avoid catastrophic warming, but not within the > rules of capitalism as they are currently constructed." > While I might agree that a revolution (in thinking and behaviour) is > needed, in my opinion social revolution minus technology revolution still > equals f**ked. > Greg > > Published on Tuesday, October 29, 2013 by New > Statesman<http://www.newstatesman.com/2013/10/science-says-revolt> > How Science Is Telling Us All To Revolt > by Naomi Klein <http://www.commondreams.org/naomi-klein> > In December 2012, a pink-haired complex systems researcher named Brad > Werner made his way through the throng of 24,000 earth and space scientists > at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, held annually in San > Francisco. This year’s conference had some big-name participants, from Ed > Stone of Nasa’s Voyager project, explaining a new milestone on the path to > interstellar space, to the film-maker James Cameron, discussing his > adventures in deep-sea submersibles. > But it was Werner’s own session that was attracting much of the buzz. It > was titled “Is Earth F**ked?” (full title: “Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical > Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for > Sustainability via Direct Action Activism”). > What scientists and experts are saying, says Klein, is "that there is > still time to avoid catastrophic warming, but not within the rules of > capitalism as they are currently constructed. Which may be the best > argument we have ever had for changing those rules." > Standing at the front of the conference room, the geophysicist from the > University of California, San Diego walked the crowd through the advanced > computer model he was using to answer that question. He talked about system > boundaries, perturbations, dissipation, attractors, bifurcations and a > whole bunch of other stuff largely incomprehensible to those of us > uninitiated in complex systems theory. But the bottom line was clear > enough: global capitalism has made the depletion of resources so rapid, > convenient and barrier-free that “earth-human systems” are becoming > dangerously unstable in response. When pressed by a journalist for a clear > answer on the “are we f**ked” question, Werner set the jargon aside and > replied, “More or less." > There was one dynamic in the model, however, that offered some hope. > Werner termed it “resistance” – movements of “people or groups of people” > who “adopt a certain set of dynamics that does not fit within the > capitalist culture”. According to the abstract for his presentation, this > includes “environmental direct action, resistance taken from outside the > dominant culture, as in protests, blockades and sabotage by indigenous > peoples, workers, anarchists and other activist groups”. > Serious scientific gatherings don’t usually feature calls for mass > political resistance, much less direct action and sabotage. But then again, > Werner wasn’t exactly calling for those things. He was merely observing > that mass uprisings of people – along the lines of the abolition movement, > the civil rights movement or Occupy Wall Street – represent the likeliest > source of “friction” to slow down an economic machine that is careening out > of control. We know that past social movements have “had tremendous > influence on . . . how the dominant culture evolved”, he pointed out. So it > stands to reason that, “if we’re thinking about the future of the earth, > and the future of our coupling to the environment, we have to include > resistance as part of that dynamics”. And that, Werner argued, is not a > matter of opinion, but “really a geophysics problem”. > Plenty of scientists have been moved by their research findings to take > action in the streets. Physicists, astronomers, medical doctors and > biologists have been at the forefront of movements against nuclear weapons, > nuclear power, war, chemical contamination and creationism. And in November > 2012, *Nature *published a commentary by the financier and environmental > philanthropist Jeremy Grantham urging scientists to join this tradition and > “be arrested if necessary”, because climate change “is not only the crisis > of your lives – it is also the crisis of our species’ existence”. > Some scientists need no convincing. The godfather of modern climate > science, James Hansen, is a formidable activist, having been arrested some > half-dozen times for resisting mountain-top removal coal mining and tar > sands pipelines (he even left his job at Nasa this year in part to have > more time for campaigning). Two years ago, when I was arrested outside the > White House at a mass action against the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline, > one of the 166 people in cuffs that day was a glaciologist named Jason Box, > a world-renowned expert on Greenland’s melting ice sheet. > “I couldn’t maintain my self-respect if I didn’t go,” Box said at the > time, adding that “just voting doesn’t seem to be enough in this case. I > need to be a citizen also.” > This is laudable, but what Werner is doing with his modelling is > different. He isn’t saying that his research drove him to take action to > stop a particular policy; he is saying that his research shows that our > entire economic paradigm is a threat to ecological stability. And indeed > that challenging this economic paradigm – through mass-movement > counter-pressure – is humanity’s best shot at avoiding catastrophe. > That’s heavy stuff. But he’s not alone. Werner is part of a small but > increasingly influential group of scientists whose research into the > destabilisation of natural systems – particularly the climate system – is > leading them to similarly transformative, even revolutionary, conclusions. > And for any closet revolutionary who has ever dreamed of overthrowing the > present economic order in favour of one a little less likely to cause > Italian pensioners to hang themselves in their homes, this work should be > of particular interest. Because it makes the ditching of that cruel system > in favour of something new (and perhaps, with lots of work, better) no > longer a matter of mere ideological preference but rather one of > species-wide existential necessity. > Leading the pack of these new scientific revolutionaries is one of > Britain’s top climate experts, Kevin Anderson, the deputy director of the > Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, which has quickly established > itself as one of the UK’s premier climate research institutions. Addressing > everyone from the Department for International Development to Manchester > City Council, Anderson has spent more than a decade patiently translating > the implications of the latest climate science to politicians, economists > and campaigners. In clear and understandable language, he lays out a > rigorous road map for emissions reduction, one that provides a decent shot > at keeping global temperature rise below 2° Celsius, a target that most > governments have determined would stave off catastrophe. > "The fact that the business-as-usual pursuit of profits and growth is > destabilising life on earth is no longer something we need to read about in > scientific journals. The early signs are unfolding before our eyes." > But in recent years Anderson’s papers and slide shows have become more > alarming. Under titles such as “Climate Change: Going Beyond Dangerous . . > . Brutal Numbers and Tenuous Hope”, he points out that the chances of > staying within anything like safe temperature levels are diminishing fast. > With his colleague Alice Bows, a climate mitigation expert at the Tyndall > Centre, Anderson points out that we have lost so much time to political > stalling and weak climate policies – all while global consumption (and > emissions) ballooned – that we are now facing cuts so drastic that they > challenge the fundamental logic of prioritising GDP growth above all else. > Anderson and Bows inform us that the often-cited long-term mitigation > target – an 80 per cent emissions cut below 1990 levels by 2050 – has been > selected purely for reasons of political expediency and has “no scientific > basis”. That’s because climate impacts come not just from what we emit > today and tomorrow, but from the cumulative emissions that build up in the > atmosphere over time. And they warn that by focusing on targets three and a > half decades into the future – rather than on what we can do to cut carbon > sharply and immediately – there is a serious risk that we will allow our > emissions to continue to soar for years to come, thereby blowing through > far too much of our 2° “carbon budget” and putting ourselves in an > impossible position later in the century. > Which is why Anderson and Bows argue that, if the governments of developed > countries are serious about hitting the agreedupon international target of > keeping warming below 2° Celsius, and if reductions are to respect any kind > of equity principle (basically that the countries that have been spewing > carbon for the better part of two centuries need to cut before the > countries where more than a billion people still don’t have electricity), > then the reductions need to be a lot deeper, and they need to come a lot > sooner. > To have even a 50/50 chance of hitting the 2° target (which, they and many > others warn, already involves facing an array of hugely damaging climate > impacts), the industrialised countries need to start cutting their > greenhouse-gas emissions by something like 10 per cent a year – and they > need to start right now. But Anderson and Bows go further, pointing out > that this target cannot be met with the array of modest carbonpricing or > green-tech solutions usually advocated by big green groups. These measures > will certainly help, to be sure, but they are simply not enough: a 10 per > cent drop in emissions, year after year, is virtually unprecedented since > we started powering our economies with coal. In fact, cuts above 1 per cent > per year “have historically been associated only with economic recession or > upheaval”, as the economist Nicholas Stern put it in his 2006 report for > the British government. > Even after the Soviet Union collapsed, reductions of this duration and > depth did not happen (the former Soviet countries experienced average > annual reductions of roughly 5 per cent over a period of ten years). They > did not happen after Wall Street crashed in 2008 (wealthy countries > experienced about a 7 per cent drop between 2008 and 2009, but their CO2 > emissions rebounded with gusto in 2010 and emissions in China and India had > continued to rise). Only in the immediate aftermath of the great market > crash of 1929 did the United States, for instance, see emissions drop for > several consecutive years by more than 10 per cent annually, according to > historical data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre. But > that was the worst economic crisis of modern times. > If we are to avoid that kind of carnage while meeting our science-based > emissions targets, carbon reduction must be managed carefully through what > Anderson and Bows describe as “radical and immediate de-growth strategies > in the US, EU and other wealthy nations”. Which is fine, except that we > happen to have an economic system that fetishises GDP growth above all > else, regardless of the human or ecological consequences, and in which the > neoliberal political class has utterly abdicated its responsibility to > manage anything (since the market is the invisible genius to which > everything must be entrusted). > So what Anderson and Bows are really saying is that there is still time to > avoid catastrophic warming, but not within the rules of capitalism as they > are currently constructed. Which may be the best argument we have ever had > for changing those rules. > In a 2012 essay that appeared in the influential scientific journal *Nature > Climate Change*, Anderson and Bows laid down something of a gauntlet, > accusing many of their fellow scientists of failing to come clean about the > kind of changes that climate change demands of humanity. On this it is > worth quoting the pair at length: > * . . . in developing emission scenarios scientists repeatedly and > severely underplay the implications of their analyses. When it comes to > avoiding a 2°C rise, “impossible” is translated into “difficult but > doable”, whereas “urgent and radical” emerge as “challenging” – all to > appease the god of economics (or, more precisely, finance). For example, to > avoid exceeding the maximum rate of emission reduction dictated by > economists, “impossibly” early peaks in emissions are assumed, together > with naive notions about “big” engineering and the deployment rates of > low-carbon infrastructure. More disturbingly, as emissions budgets dwindle, > so geoengineering is increasingly proposed to ensure that the diktat of > economists remains unquestioned.* > In other words, in order to appear reasonable within neoliberal economic > circles, scientists have been dramatically soft-peddling the implications > of their research. By August 2013, Anderson was willing to be even more > blunt, writing that the boat had sailed on gradual change. “Perhaps at the > time of the 1992 Earth Summit, or even at the turn of the millennium, 2°C > levels of mitigation could have been achieved through significant* > evolutionary > changes within the political and economic hegemony*. But climate change > is a cumulative issue! Now, in 2013, we in high-emitting (post-)industrial > nations face a very different prospect. Our ongoing and collective carbon > profligacy has squandered any opportunity for the ‘evolutionary change’ > afforded by our earlier (and larger) 2°C carbon budget. Today, after two > decades of bluff and lies, the remaining 2°C budget demands*revolutionary > change to the political and economic hegemony” (his emphasis).* > We probably shouldn’t be surprised that some climate scientists are a > little spooked by the radical implications of even their own research. Most > of them were just quietly doing their work measuring ice cores, running > global climate models and studying ocean acidification, only to discover, > as the Australian climate expert and author Clive Hamilton puts it, that > they “were unwittingly destabilising the political and social order”. > But there are many people who are well aware of the revolutionary nature > of climate science. It’s why some of the governments that decided to chuck > their climate commitments in favour of digging up more carbon have had to > find ever more thuggish ways to silence and intimidate their nations’ > scientists. In Britain, this strategy is becoming more overt, with Ian > Boyd, the chief scientific adviser at the Department for Environment, Food > and Rural Affairs, writing recently that scientists should avoid > “suggesting that policies are either right or wrong” and should express > their views “by working with embedded advisers (such as myself), and by > being the voice of reason, rather than dissent, in the public arena”. > If you want to know where this leads, check out what’s happening in > Canada, where I live. The Conservative government of Stephen Harper has > done such an effective job of gagging scientists and shutting down critical > research projects that, in July 2012, a couple thousand scientists and > supporters held a mock-funeral on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, mourning “the > death of evidence”. Their placards said, “No Science, No Evidence, No > Truth”. > But the truth is getting out anyway. The fact that the business-as-usual > pursuit of profits and growth is destabilising life on earth is no longer > something we need to read about in scientific journals. The early signs are > unfolding before our eyes. And increasing numbers of us are responding > accordingly: blockading fracking activity in Balcombe; interfering with > Arctic drilling preparations in Russian waters (at tremendous personal > cost); taking tar sands operators to court for violating indigenous > sovereignty; and countless other acts of resistance large and small. In > Brad Werner’s computer model, this is the “friction” needed to slow down > the forces of destabilisation; the great climate campaigner Bill McKibben > calls it the “antibodies” rising up to fight the planet’s “spiking fever”. > It’s not a revolution, but it’s a start. And it might just buy us enough > time to figure out a way to live on this planet that is distinctly less > f**ked. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. 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