Ship traffic terminates in busy ports, but on the high seas, they are
relatively dispersed, and cross winds serve to distribute the sulphur and /
or resulting aerosols.

I remain of the opinion that making this change without good science is an
extremely risky thing to do.

A
 On 14 Aug 2014 16:43, "Mike MacCracken" <[email protected]> wrote:

> I was asked by a colleague about what is expected to happen as marine
> bunker
> fuels are desulfurized over the coming several years. My first response was
> that it would reduce the SO2 emissions and so the sulfate, and since
> sulfate
> adds to cooling, this would suggest the desulfurization would lead to a
> warming influence.
>
> But then, the key to cloud brightening is addition of CCN in relatively
> unpolluted regions (so yes, over remote oceans), but is not much of the
> ship
> traffic in relatively polluted regions? Experiments do seem to indicate
> that
> over-saturation of CCN tends to lead to cloud clearing--so basically we are
> in the Goldilocks situation--one needs to have neither too few CCN nor too
> many to get cloud brightening.
>
> So, might it be that in some polluted regions, reducing the SO2 emissions
> from marine sources might actually lead to an increase in clouds/cloud
> brightness? Has anyone done a really careful analysis of this? Do we really
> have good quantitative estimates of what might happen? And how might all of
> this play out as the other sources of SO2 are changing?
>
> Perhaps Stephen Salter, John Latham, Alan Gadian, et al. have a paper(s) on
> this that I have missed.
>
> Mike MacCracken
>
>
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