Andrew
Did you write before seeing the SO2 map?
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering.
University of Edinburgh. Mayfield Road. Edinburgh EH9 3JL. Scotland
[email protected] Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195
WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
On 14/08/2014 16:59, Andrew Lockley wrote:
Ship traffic terminates in busy ports, but on the high seas, they are
relatively dispersed, and cross winds serve to distribute the sulphur
and / or resulting aerosols.
I remain of the opinion that making this change without good science
is an extremely risky thing to do.
A
On 14 Aug 2014 16:43, "Mike MacCracken" <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
I was asked by a colleague about what is expected to happen as
marine bunker
fuels are desulfurized over the coming several years. My first
response was
that it would reduce the SO2 emissions and so the sulfate, and
since sulfate
adds to cooling, this would suggest the desulfurization would lead
to a
warming influence.
But then, the key to cloud brightening is addition of CCN in
relatively
unpolluted regions (so yes, over remote oceans), but is not much
of the ship
traffic in relatively polluted regions? Experiments do seem to
indicate that
over-saturation of CCN tends to lead to cloud clearing--so
basically we are
in the Goldilocks situation--one needs to have neither too few CCN
nor too
many to get cloud brightening.
So, might it be that in some polluted regions, reducing the SO2
emissions
from marine sources might actually lead to an increase in clouds/cloud
brightness? Has anyone done a really careful analysis of this? Do
we really
have good quantitative estimates of what might happen? And how
might all of
this play out as the other sources of SO2 are changing?
Perhaps Stephen Salter, John Latham, Alan Gadian, et al. have a
paper(s) on
this that I have missed.
Mike MacCracken
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