Andrew, One of the books mentioned in the list, Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy: How to Reduce the Threat of Dangerous Climate Change by Embracing Uncertainty and Failure, by Robert Chris, is obviously suggesting that systems thinking be applied to the overall problems set(s). In systems thinking, one understands that there are different orders of effect relative to an action. This is much like working within the 'chaos theory' space. I'm sure that, at the first order of effect, MCB can be legitimately described as being "forgotten in a few days" if not hours.
Also, it is my understanding of engineering, of all types, that the use of systems thinking is rather common. As such, commenting upon a 2nd or 3rd order effect, when it is obvious that Dr. Salter was referring to the first order effect of MCB, may be confusing for those not familiar with systems thinking. Best, Michael On Thursday, February 4, 2016 at 7:32:05 AM UTC-8, Andrew Lockley wrote: > > Anything that cools the ocean surface is likely to have persistent effects > on the heat and gas content of the ocean for centuries. > > To describe MCB as being "forgotten in a few days" is simply > counterfactual. > > A > On 4 Feb 2016 15:28, "Stephen Salter" <[email protected] <javascript:>> > wrote: > >> Dear Jim >> >> The initial effect of marine cloud brightening is to return sea surface >> temperatures to the values that they were in the good old days. This is >> done using only energy from the wind and materials already available in >> enormous quantity at sea. >> >> We can choose the places and seasons relative to the phase of monsoons to >> either increase precipitation in dry places or reduce it in wet ones. >> >> We may be able to moderate the bad effects of el Nino. >> >> If we make a mistake we can stop instantly and effects will be forgotten >> in a few days. >> >> The annual cost of correcting the thermal effects since pre-industrial >> times is probably below the annual cost of climate conferences. >> >> We can detect effects of spray from a single spray source by averaging >> satellite photographs and increase spray rates slowly. >> >> Spray at high latitudes around the summer solstice will be particularly >> effective in retaining Arctic ice. >> >> Lots of work has already been done on the hardware design. You were a bit >> rude with your Rube Goldberg comment (quite insulting to engineers) and did >> not reply to my polite email asking you for specific details. >> >> I ask you to imagine that work on marine cloud brightening, which might >> have saved the Arctic ice, is delayed until the loss has passed a tripping >> point. This messes up the jet stream even more than it is now with longer >> drought in California and worse storms on the east Coast. It makes the >> present migration problem orders of magnitude worse. >> >> The political trigger for the delay in research was something that you >> wrote and the historians, humanists and policy makers believed. >> >> Stephen >> >> Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering, >> University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3DW, Scotland >> [email protected] <javascript:>, Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 >> 195, WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change >> On 04/02/2016 12:33, Jim Fleming wrote: >> >> Dear All, >> >> I wrote quote #2 in 2006 after attending the NASA-Ames meeting, when the >> field of geoengineering was in a distinct "technological fix" mode. I was >> appalled by the tone of the discourse I had just experienced and wanted to >> alert the community of historians, humanists, and policy makers to the >> outrageous claims for climate control circulating at the time. >> >> I wrote this as a prelude, a "hook" if you will, to a much longer history >> of intervention. The community interested in these ideas is much larger >> and somewhat more diverse now, and I am encouraged to see more humanists >> making contributions, but still, most every week, I read of rather >> outrageous notions for "controlling" Earth's climate. >> >> Jim Fleming >> >> - - - - - >> James R. Fleming >> Charles A. Dana Professor of Science, Technology, and Society, Colby >> College >> Series editor, Palgrave Studies in the History of Science and Technology >> >> *Inventing Atmospheric Science* (MIT Press, 2016), >> <https://mitpress.mit.edu/atmospheric-science> >> https://mitpress.mit.edu/atmospheric-science >> >> Profile: http://www.colby.edu/directory/profile/jfleming/ >> >> "Everything is unprecedented if you don't study history." >> >> >> On Thu, Feb 4, 2016 at 3:13 AM, Emily <[email protected] >> <javascript:>> wrote: >> >>> Hi all >>> >>> Useful looking list of books. >>> >>> 2 things jump out: >>> >>> 1. Lack of mention in the blurbs that IPCC relies upon CDR to have a >>> chance of staying below 2degC (noting we need the limit to be lower still). >>> Framing CDR as a back up plan, seems unjustifiable, as it is critical to >>> the 'plan A' as I read it. >>> >>> 2. The blurb about 'Fixing the Sky' includes this phrase: "...Forget >>> cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, some scientists argue. Instead, bounce >>> sunlight back into space..." I wonder whether scientists really do say that >>> at all. I don't see this as a real reflection of the discorse. >>> >>> Given these two thoughts, and the number of books available - making it >>> tough to read them all, and my feeling that some of the books on offer >>> clearly have an agenda, does anyone have a view which of these books gives >>> a fairly balanced discussion, also accepting the IPCC view of the need for >>> CDR and one which avoids slandering scientists generically? >>> >>> Thanks, >>> Emily >>> Sent from my BlackBerry® >>> ------------------------------ >>> *From: * Andrew Lockley < <javascript:>[email protected] >>> <javascript:>> >>> *Sender: * [email protected] <javascript:> >>> *Date: *Wed, 3 Feb 2016 14:29:29 +0000 >>> *To: *geoengineering< <javascript:>[email protected] >>> <javascript:>> >>> *ReplyTo: * [email protected] <javascript:> >>> *Subject: *[geo] Bookshelf: Engineering the atmosphere - Yale Climate >>> Connections >>> >>> >>> http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2016/02/bookshelf-engineering-the-atmosphere/ >>> >>> Bookshelf: Engineering the Atmosphere >>> By Michael Svoboda on Feb 2, 2016 >>> >>> This month's compendium of timely books address the multifaceted >>> technological, political, social, economic, and ethical issues surrounding >>> geoengineering, humanity's 'Plan B' (or X?) for combating excessive global >>> warming. >>> >>> Geoengineering. For some it’s a prudent insurance policy to protect >>> against what-if scenarios if societies’ efforts to combat excessive global >>> warming fails to manage what modern societies themselves have created. For >>> many others, it’s a last-resort, pull-out-all-the-stops Hail Mary pass >>> fraught with its own problems and unknowns. >>> >>> This month’s climate bookshelf feature is again compiled by bibliophile >>> Michael Svoboda of George Washington University, a former book-store owner >>> and regular contributor. Descriptions are drawn from the publishers’ copy. >>> >>> How to Cool the Planet: Geoengineering and the Audacious Quest to Fix >>> Earth’s Climate, by Jeff Goodell (Mariner Books, 2010; 276 pages, $14.95 >>> paperback) >>> >>> Climate discussions often focus on potential impacts over a long period >>> of time – several decades, a century even. But change could also happen >>> much more suddenly. What if we had a real climate emergency – how could we >>> cool the planet in a hurry? This question has led a group of scientists to >>> pursue extreme solutions: huge contraptions that would suck CO2 from the >>> air, machines that brighten clouds and deflect sunlight away from the >>> earth, even artificial volcanoes that spray heat-reflecting particles into >>> the atmosphere. This is the radical and controversial world of >>> geoengineering. In How to Cool the Planet, Jeff Goodell explores the >>> scientific, political, and moral aspects of geoengineering. . . . There are >>> certainly risks, but Goodell persuades us that geoengineering may be our >>> last best hope, a Plan B for the environment. >>> >>> Hack the Planet: Science’s Best Hope – or Worst Nightmare – for Averting >>> Climate Catastrophe, by Eli Kintisch (Wiley, 2010; 280 pages, $25.95) >>> >>> Scientists are developing geoengineering techniques for worst-case >>> scenarios. . . . [In Hack the Planet, Science magazine reporter] Kintisch >>> outlines four: collapsing ice sheets, megadroughts, a catastrophic methane >>> release, and slowing of the global ocean conveyor belt. As incredible and >>> outlandish as many [geoengineering] plans may seem, could they soon become >>> our only hope for avoiding calamity? Or will the plans of brilliant and >>> well-intentioned scientists cause unforeseeable disasters? And does the >>> advent of geoengineering mean that humanity has failed in its role as >>> steward of the planet – or taken on a new responsibility? Kintisch’s >>> investigation of the [possibilities and dangers of geoengineering] is >>> required reading as the debate over global warming shifts to whether >>> humanity should Hack the Planet. >>> >>> Geo-Engineering Climate Change: Environmental Necessity or Pandora’s >>> Box?, Edited by Brian Launder and J. Michael T. Thompson >>> (Cambridge University Press, 2010; 332 pages, $69.60 (at Amazon)) >>> >>> This book is the first to present a detailed and critical appraisal of >>> the geo-scale engineering interventions that have been proposed as >>> potential measures to counter the devastation of run-away global warming. >>> Early chapters set the scene with a discussion of projections of future CO2 >>> emissions and techniques for predicting climate tipping points. Subsequent >>> chapters then review proposals to limit CO2 concentrations through improved >>> energy technologies, removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, and stimulated >>> uptake by the oceans. Schemes for solar radiation management involving the >>> reflection of sunlight back into space and using artificially brightened >>> clouds and stratospheric aerosols are also assessed. Pros and cons of the >>> various schemes are thoroughly examined – throwing light on the passionate >>> public debate about their safety. >>> >>> Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control, by >>> James Rodger Fleming (Columbia University Press, 2010; 344 pages, $24.95 >>> paperback) >>> >>> As alarm over global warming spreads, a radical idea is gaining >>> momentum. Forget cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, some scientists argue. >>> Instead, bounce sunlight back into space by pumping reflective >>> nanoparticles into the atmosphere. Launch mirrors into orbit around the >>> Earth. Make clouds thicker and brighter to create a “planetary thermostat.” >>> . . . For more than a century, scientists, soldiers, and charlatans have >>> tried to manipulate weather and climate, and like them, today’s climate >>> engineers wildly exaggerate what is possible. Scarcely considering the >>> political, military, and ethical implications of managing the world’s >>> climate, these individuals hatch schemes with potential consequences that >>> far outweigh anything their predecessors might have faced. [In Fixing the >>> Sky], James Rodger Fleming traces the tragicomic history of the rainmakers, >>> rain fakers, weather warriors, and climate engineers who have been both >>> full of ideas and full of themselves. . . . [He] speaks to anyone who has a >>> stake in sustaining the planet. >>> >>> Climate Change Geoengineering: Philosophical Perspectives, Legal Issues, >>> and Governance Frameworks, Edited by Wil C. Burns and Andrew L. Strauss >>> (Cambridge University Press, 2013; 328 pages, $35.99) >>> >>> The international community is not taking the action necessary to avert >>> dangerous increases in greenhouse gases. Facing a potentially bleak future, >>> the question that confronts humanity is whether the best of bad >>> alternatives may be to counter global warming through human-engineered >>> climate interventions. In this book, eleven prominent authorities on >>> climate change consider the legal, policy, and philosophical issues >>> presented by geoengineering. >>> >>> Earthmasters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering, by Clive >>> Hamilton (Yale University Press, 2013; 264 pages, $20.00 paperback) >>> >>> International efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have all >>> failed, and before the end of the century Earth is projected to be warmer >>> than it has been for 15 million years. The question “can the crisis be >>> avoided?” has been superseded by a more frightening one, “what can be done >>> to prevent the devastation of the living world?” . . . [In Earthmasters, >>> Clive Hamilton] lays out the arguments for and against climate engineering, >>> and reveals the extent of vested interests linking researchers, venture >>> capitalists, and corporations. He then examines what it means for human >>> beings to be making plans to control the planet’s atmosphere, probes the >>> uneasiness we feel with the notion of exercising technological mastery over >>> nature, and challenges the ways we think about ourselves and our place in >>> the natural world. >>> >>> A Case for Climate Engineering, by David Keith (Boston Review Books / >>> The MIT Press, 2013; 112 pages, $16.95) >>> >>> A leading scientist long concerned about climate change, Keith . . . >>> argues that, after decades during which very little progress has been made >>> in reducing carbon emissions, we must put [climate engineering] on the >>> table and consider it responsibly. That doesn’t mean we will deploy it, and >>> it doesn’t mean that we can abandon efforts to reduce greenhouse gas >>> emissions. But we must understand fully what research needs to be done and >>> how the technology might be designed and used. [He] provides a clear and >>> accessible overview of what the costs and risks might be, and how climate >>> engineering might fit into a larger program for managing climate change. >>> >>> Engineering the Climate: The Ethics of Solar Radiation Management, >>> Edited by Christopher J. Preston (Lexington Books, 2013; 278 pages, $36.99 >>> paperback) >>> >>> Climate engineering (also known as geoengineering) has recently >>> experienced a surge of interest given the growing likelihood that the >>> global community will fail to limit the temperature increases associated >>> with greenhouse gases to safe levels. . . . One particular form, solar >>> radiation management (SRM), is known to be relatively cheap and capable of >>> bringing down global temperatures very rapidly. However, the complexity of >>> the climate system creates considerable uncertainty about the precise >>> nature of SRM’s effects in different regions. The ethical issues raised by >>> the prospect of SRM are both complex and thorny. . . . A sustained and >>> scholarly treatment of [these issues] is necessary before it will be >>> possible to make fair and just decisions about whether (or how) to proceed. >>> This book, including essays by 13 experts in the ethics of geoengineering, >>> [begins that process]. >>> >>> Geoengineering of the Climate System, Edited by R. M. Harrison et al >>> (Royal Society of Chemistry, 2014; 270 pp. $108.00 (Amazon)) >>> >>> Geoengineering of the Climate System presents an overview of the >>> technologies currently being considered as large scale solutions to climate >>> change, and considers some of the possible benefits and disadvantages of >>> each. [With] invited contributions . . . by many of the leading experts on >>> these technologies, the volume provides a comprehensive overview of both >>> carbon dioxide reduction and solar radiation management methods [and then >>> reviews the] important ethical and governance issues [to which they give >>> rise]. Written with active researchers, postgraduate students and >>> policy-makers in mind, this latest addition to the Issues in Environmental >>> Science & Technology series presents a balanced and informed view of this >>> important field of research and is an essential addition to any >>> environmental science library. >>> >>> Can Science Fix Climate Change: A Case Against Climate Engineering, by >>> Mike Hulme (Wiley/Polity, 2014; 144 pages, $12.95) >>> >>> Climate change seems to be an insurmountable problem. Political >>> solutions have so far had little impact. Some scientists are now advocating >>> the so-called “Plan B”, a more direct way of reducing the rate of future >>> warming by reflecting more sunlight back to space, creating a thermostat in >>> the sky. . . . Drawing upon a distinguished career studying the science, >>> politics and ethics of climate change, Mike Hulme shows why using science >>> to fix the global climate is undesirable, ungovern-able and unattainable. >>> Science and technology should instead serve the more pragmatic goals of >>> increasing societal resilience to weather risks, improving regional air >>> quality and driving forward an energy technology transition. Seeking to >>> reset the planet’s thermostat is not the answer. >>> >>> Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, >>> by Committee on Geoengineering the Climate (National Academies Press, 2015; >>> 154 pages, $49.95 paper) A PDF for this book can be downloaded for free >>> from this webpage. >>> >>> As one of a two-book report, Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide >>> Removal and Reliable Sequestration introduces possible CDR approaches and >>> then discusses them in depth. Land management practices, such as low-till >>> agriculture, reforestation and afforestation, ocean iron fertilization, and >>> land-and-ocean-based accelerated weathering, could amplify the rates of >>> processes that are already occurring as part of the natural carbon cycle. >>> Other CDR approaches, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and >>> sequestration, direct air capture and sequestration, and traditional carbon >>> capture and sequestration, seek to capture CO2 from the atmosphere and >>> dispose of it by pumping it underground at high pressure. This book looks >>> at the pros and cons of these options and estimates possible rates of >>> removal and total amounts that might be removed. >>> >>> Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth, by Committee on >>> Geoengineering the Climate (National Academies Press, 2015; 154 pages, >>> $49.95 paper) A PDF for this book can be downloaded for free from this >>> webpage. >>> >>> As one of a two-book report, this volume discusses albedo modification – >>> changing the fraction of incoming solar radiation that reaches the surface. >>> This approach would deliberately modify the energy budget of Earth to >>> produce a cooling designed to compensate for some of the effects of warming >>> associated with greenhouse gas increases. The prospect of large-scale >>> albedo modifcation raises political and governance issues at national and >>> global levels, as well as ethical concerns. Climate Intervention: >>> Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth discusses [these issues and concerns]. In >>> the spirit of transparency [critical for these discussions, this report] >>> was based on peer-reviewed literature and the judgments of the authoring >>> committee; no new research was done as part of this study and all data and >>> information used are from entirely open sources. . . . [Leaders should >>> understand] the consequences of albedo modification approaches before they >>> face a decision whether or not to use them. >>> >>> Experiment Earth: Responsible Innovation in Geoengineering, by Jack >>> Stilgoe (Routledge/Earthscan, 2015; 222 pages, $145.00) >>> >>> Experiments in geoengineering – intentionally manipulating the Earth’s >>> climate to reduce global warming – have become the focus of a vital debate >>> about responsible science and innovation. Drawing on three years of >>> sociological research working with scientists on one of the world’s first >>> major geoengineering projects, this book examines the politics of >>> experimentation. Geoengineering provides a test case for rethinking the >>> responsibilities of scientists and asking how science can take better care >>> of the futures that it helps bring about. This book gives students, >>> researchers and the general reader interested in the place of science in >>> contemporary society a compelling framework for future thinking and >>> discussion. >>> >>> The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World, by Oliver >>> Morton (Princeton University Press, 2015; 440 pages, $29.95) >>> >>> The Planet Remade explores the history, politics, and cutting-edge >>> science of geoengineering. Morton weighs both the promise and perils of >>> these controversial strategies and puts them in the broadest possible >>> context. The past century’s changes to the planet – to the clouds and the >>> soils, to the winds and the seas, to the great cycles of nitrogen and >>> carbon – have been far more profound than most of us realize. Appreciating >>> those changes clarifies not just the scale of what needs to be done about >>> global warming, but also our relationship to nature. . . . [Morton] >>> addresses the deep fear that comes with seeing humans as a force of nature, >>> and asks what it might mean . . . to try and use that force . . . to meet >>> the challenge of climate change. >>> >>> Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy: How to Reduce the Threat of >>> Dangerous Climate Change by Embracing Uncertainty and Failure, by Robert >>> Chris (Routledge / Earthscan, 2015; 212 pages, $145.00) >>> >>> Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy is the first book to >>> [discuss] geoengineering in terms of complex adaptive systems theory and to >>> argue for the theoretical imperative of adaptive management . . . for >>> confronting the inescapable uncertainty and surprise that characterize >>> potential climate futures. The book illustrates how a shift from the >>> conventional Enlightenment paradigm of linear reductionist thinking, in >>> favor of systems thinking, would promote robust policies [for] the widest >>> range of plausible futures . . . and could also unlock the policy paralysis >>> caused by making [agreement on] long term predictions a prior condition for >>> policy formulation. It also offers some systems-driven reflections on a >>> global governance network for geoengineering. >>> >>> FILED UNDER: book reviews, climate engineering,geoengineering, Michael >>> Svoboda >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to <javascript:>[email protected] <javascript:> >>> . >>> To post to this group, send email to <javascript:> >>> [email protected] <javascript:>. >>> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected] <javascript:>. >>> To post to this group, send email to <javascript:> >>> [email protected] <javascript:>. >>> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected] <javascript:>. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >> <javascript:>. >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected] <javascript:>. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >> <javascript:>. >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> >> The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in >> Scotland, with registration number SC005336. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected] <javascript:>. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >> <javascript:>. >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> >> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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