OK, thanks. So El Ninos modulate land-->air CO2 flux. That would be difficult
to sort out with 13C/12C given the isotopic similarity between fossil and land
bio CO2. But potentially easier with 14C/12C, given the huge difference between
those sources. Any recent changes evident in the Suess Effect? Otherwise, I'm
sticking with my positive CO2 feedback apocalypse theory ;-)Greg
From: Oliver Morton <[email protected]>
To: geoengineering <[email protected]>
Cc: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]
Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2017 1:37 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] Re: Record Increase in Air CO2
Jones and Cox (2005) explains that It's not the ocean flux that predominates:
[5] A number of studies have shown previous anomalies in the CO2 growth rate to
be correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the El Niño
phase of ENSO large-areas of tropical land become dryer and warmer, leading to
a net emission of CO2 from the land to the atmosphere which amplifies the CO2
growth rate due to anthropogenic emissions [see, e.g., Keeling et al., 1995;
Jones et al., 2001; Zeng et al., 2005; Knorr et al., 2005]. The opposite
happens during the La Niña phase leading to anomalously low CO2 growth rates.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL023027/full
Betts et al also cite fire. Attaching whole paper.
On Wednesday, 15 March 2017 20:10:46 UTC, Greg Rau wrote:
I'm confused. El Nino reduces upwelling and hence ocean-->air CO2 flux(?). How
does this increase air CO2? Admittedly, I don't have Betts et al's paywalled
article. Then there is this recent missive:http://www.nature.com/nature/
journal/v542/n7640/full/ nature21068.html
"…….We find that during the 1990s an enhanced upper-ocean overturning
circulation drove increased outgassing of natural CO2, thus weakening the
global CO2 sink. This trend reversed during the 2000s as the overturning
circulation weakened. Continued weakening of the upper-ocean overturning is
likely to strengthen the CO2 sink in the near future by trapping natural CO2 in
the deep ocean, but ultimately may limit oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2.
Again, where's the evidence that the ocean source has strengthened?
Differentiating ocean from anthro sources of CO2 can be done by looking for
anomalies in air CO2 13C/12C. There has been a very strong linear depression of
air 13C/12C as fossil CO2 (graphed as 1/[CO2]) is added. I don't have the
latest data, but I'd need to see a change in this trend if ocean CO2 has
suddenly become more dominant. Otherwise, if the conventional trend is
continuing, there's got to be a more 13C depleted source of CO2 than the ocean
to explain the trend. Are positive respiration/methane C feedbacks finally upon
us? Is it time yet to get serious about actively managing air CO2?
Greg
From: Oliver Morton <[email protected]>
To: geoengineering <geoengi...@googlegroups. com>
Cc: [email protected]; Charles H. Greene <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, March 15, 2017 11:18 AM
Subject: [geo] Re: Record Increase in Air CO2
see http://www.nature.com/ nclimate/journal/v6/n9/full/ nclimate3063.html
>>>>The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this
>>>>year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate
>>>>model, we forecast that the CO2concentration at Mauna Loa will for the
>>>>first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.
On Wednesday, 15 March 2017 11:18:45 UTC, Oliver Morton wrote:
Greg -- I think it's probably the El Nino for these latest figures, no? I
believe there will be some papers from OCO that nail this down in GRL quite soon
On Tuesday, 14 March 2017 18:41:37 UTC, Greg Rau wrote:
https://phys.org/news/2017-03- carbon-dioxide-rose-pace-2nd. html
"The two-year, 6-ppm surge in the greenhouse gas between 2015 and 2017 is
unprecedented in the observatory's 59-year record. And, it was a record fifth
consecutive year that carbon dioxide (CO2) rose by 2 ppm or greater, said
Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network."
GR - If anthro emissions have plateaued, https://www.theguardian.com/
environment/2016/nov/14/ fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-
nearly-stable-for-third-year- in-row why the dramatic increase in CO2? A
runaway GH is upon us? Anyway, is it time yet to admit that anthro emissions
reduction is failing and to find out if CDR is more than a figment of IPCC's
imagination?
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