Hi all, Please can I offer a paper we published some years ago, which may now need updating. I hope it helps and is of interest. It looks in detail at ocean carbon pumps and how a warmer world and higher CO2 world reduces the sinks. Best wishes, Emily Lewis-Brown
Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change * Philip C. Reid <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> * <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0001> , † <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0002> , ‡ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0003> , * Astrid C. Fischer <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> * <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0001> , * Emily Lewis-Brown <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> § <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0004> , * Michael P. Meredith <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> ¶ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0005> , * Mike Sparrow <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> ** <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0006> , * Andreas J. Andersson <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> †† <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0007> , * Avan Antia <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> ‡‡ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0008> , * Nicholas R. Bates <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> ‡‡ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0008> , * Ulrich Bathmann <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> §§ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0009> , * Gregory Beaugrand <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#> * <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0001> , ¶¶ <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014#af0010> , http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065288109560014 Chapter 4 especially might be of interest. Here is the abstract and reference: The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated. Advances in Marine Biology <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/bookseries/00652881> Volume 56 <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/bookseries/00652881/56/supp/C> , 2009, Pages 1–150 Advances in Marine Biology <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/bookseries/00652881/56/supp/C> Best wishes, Emily. From: geo-engineering grp <[email protected]> on behalf of Mike MacCracken <[email protected]> Reply-To: Mike MacCracken <[email protected]> Date: Sunday, 19 March 2017 at 20:28 To: <[email protected]>, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>, geo-engineering grp <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [geo] Record Increase in Air CO2 I'd only add that in your way of thinking, the drain can also get clogged (e.g., if the rate of ocean overturning is slowed by the warming, which would also reduce the amount of nutrients coming to the surface, so also slow the biological pump). This is how one would presumably represent the increasing atmospheric fraction. Mike On 3/19/17 2:43 PM, Klaus Lackner wrote: > > > > This is therefore a good time to educate people. Emissions did not increase, > but the annual rise in CO2 increased. It allows you to explain that CO2, once > put into the air, sticks to it. > > > > I find it amazing that this far more intuitive way of thinking, has been wiped > out by a conceptually much more complex flow model, which in this case is not > even correct. I think you see 30 years of education of acid rain misapplied to > CO2. It seems much more intuitive to consider a bathtub filling up in > response to an open faucet than to consider the faucet being in equilibrium > with a drain, and that the drain rate increases with increased fill, and that > therefore a particular filling rate from the faucet is associated with a > particular level in the tub. Note that having a drain is not enough. If the > drain rate is independent of the fill rate, raising the flow rate from the > faucet will lead to a continuous and unabated rise. > > > > A sudden increase in the CO2 level in the atmosphere, will increase the drain > rate, but the drain rate slows down as the layer in equilibrium gets thicker. > One way of looking at it is to consider the CO2 emission rate that holds CO2 > in the air constant. It drops rapidly over time, even if instantly it might > be 50% of current emissions. > > > > Once this is understood, we can begin to worry why the fraction of CO2 that > goes out of the atmosphere seems to shrink. > > > > Klaus > > > > > > > > > > > > From: <[email protected]> > <mailto:[email protected]> on behalf of Michael MacCracken > <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]> > Reply-To: "[email protected]" <mailto:[email protected]> > <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]> > Date: Sunday, March 19, 2017 at 9:30 AM > To: "[email protected]" <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> > <mailto:[email protected]> , "[email protected]" > <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> > <mailto:[email protected]> > Subject: Re: [geo] Record Increase in Air CO2 > > > > > > > > I'd guess what they meant was that global emissions were about the same (I > think the Global Carbon Project report has indicated this). There is this > serious misperception that if emissions don't go up, concentrations won't go > up, and so all we have to do is stop growth in emissions. > > > Mike > > > > > > > On 3/19/17 6:39 AM, Stephen Salter wrote: > > >> >> Hi All >> >> >> The Financial Times story was about reported emissions and the NOAA report >> was about atmospheric measurements. >> >> >> Perhaps reports have been tweeked or CO2 sinks have become less effective. >> >> >> Stephen >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On 19/03/2017 09:16, 'Robert Tulip' via geoengineering wrote: >> >> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> The International Energy Agency and Financial Times are claiming the >>> opposite. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> https://www.ft.com/content/540ebb0c-0a60-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43 >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.ft.com_content_540 >>> ebb0c-2D0a60-2D11e7-2Dac5a-2D903b21361b43&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ej >>> iz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1T >>> j9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA&s=voxC__g9yDWN1GEoQFBwJhy7RzJDOuKk6fbD1 >>> xxT5Qk&e=> makes the false claim of "global CO2 levels in 2016 virtually >>> unchanged from the two previous years, the International Energy Agency >>> said." >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Robert Tulip >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> From: Greg Rau <[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]> >>> To: Geoengineering <[email protected]> >>> <mailto:[email protected]> >>> Cc: Arctic Methane Google Group <[email protected]> >>> <mailto:[email protected]> >>> Sent: Wednesday, 15 March 2017, 5:41 >>> Subject: [geo] Record Increase in Air CO2 >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> https://phys.org/news/2017-03-carbon-dioxide-rose-pace-2nd.html >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__phys.org_news_2017-2D0 >>> 3-2Dcarbon-2Ddioxide-2Drose-2Dpace-2D2nd.html&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqy >>> v2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XT >>> qe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA&s=56Uwd9giBhr2nR874l_BTRPgGwYyaldo1 >>> 6YgoMS3WFI&e=> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> "The two-year, 6-ppm surge in the greenhouse gas >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__phys.org_tags_greenhou >>> se-2Bgas_&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8 >>> RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2H >>> BlKA&s=p17Mhe5V35B8Fwaocrle0YjCrtc2BAW3qaw51yOGojI&e=> between 2015 and >>> 2017 is unprecedented in the observatory's 59-year record. And, it was a >>> record fifth consecutive year that carbon dioxide >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__phys.org_tags_carbon-2 >>> Bdioxide_&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8 >>> RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2H >>> BlKA&s=niGg254pva38LfUM5ftQJZ6GJtj1oCGqe2gTQ9ujXE4&e=> (CO2) rose by 2 ppm >>> or greater, said Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas >>> Reference Network." >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> GR - If anthro emissions have plateaued, >>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/14/fossil-fuel-co2-emission >>> s-nearly-stable-for-third-year-in-row >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.theguardian.com_en >>> vironment_2016_nov_14_fossil-2Dfuel-2Dco2-2Demissions-2Dnearly-2Dstable-2Dfo >>> r-2Dthird-2Dyear-2Din-2Drow&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A- >>> 1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrE >>> T0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA&s=V6xqM6Rxn8ba-ULIDLR5ciVuybmcsprej9AE6Nsxcpw&e=> >>> why the dramatic increase in CO2? A runaway GH is upon us? Anyway, is it >>> time yet to admit that anthro emissions reduction is failing and to find out >>> if CDR is more than a figment of IPCC's imagination? >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >>> email to [email protected]. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >>> <mailto:[email protected]> . >>> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__groups.google.com_grou >>> p_geoengineering&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WG >>> nYI4fX8RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGig >>> Ubf-P2HBlKA&s=Y1WuJW7A_rdJiYJoQXAZRzQ989lrGOV1L9YJ_Mxu0jY&e=> . >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__groups.google.com_d_op >>> tout&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vR >>> YEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA& >>> s=CKEe5dbyxrjTEC8nqCJSG5P7CdoA1XxMkGPrMJmjAvw&e=> . >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>> "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >>> email to [email protected]. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected] >>> <mailto:[email protected]> . >>> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__groups.google.com_grou >>> p_geoengineering&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WG >>> nYI4fX8RG4vRYEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGig >>> Ubf-P2HBlKA&s=Y1WuJW7A_rdJiYJoQXAZRzQ989lrGOV1L9YJ_Mxu0jY&e=> . >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout >>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__groups.google.com_d_op >>> tout&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vR >>> YEgQ58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA& >>> s=CKEe5dbyxrjTEC8nqCJSG5P7CdoA1XxMkGPrMJmjAvw&e=> . >>> >> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> >> Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. >> >> School of Engineering, >> >> University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Scotland >> >> [email protected], Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195, >> >> WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs >> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk_s >> hs&d=DQMFaQ&c=AGbYxfJbXK67KfXyGqyv2Ejiz41FqQuZFk4A-1IxfAU&r=WGnYI4fX8RG4vRYEg >> Q58RGqZxcDNS0ar5UCuy0zW9_A&m=1XTqe1Tj9N1WDBwpI1xrET0_dSN1aGigUbf-P2HBlKA&s=wh >> mx6PNNYfCPuJvI8r5rvymgdr7_HbBKRNnkRJ748L8&e=> , 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