Considering all effects, what's your view on the ideal height?

Andrew

On Tue, 17 Dec 2019, 08:47 Govindasamy Bala, <[email protected]> wrote:

> 26 km is probably not going to add any more benefit compared 25 km if you
> consider the effect identified in our paper but it is better when
> sedimentation effect is considered. More experiments with the NCAR WACCM
> model would be good to precisely nail this down.
>
> On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 2:10 PM Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
>> Is 26k less good than 25?
>>
>> On Tue, 17 Dec 2019, 08:37 Govindasamy Bala, <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> Andrew,
>>>
>>> Sedimentation effect works in the same direction as the effect we
>>> identified in our study. Therefore, higher the altitude of injection, the
>>> better. My judgement: 25 km would be good.
>>>
>>> On Mon, Dec 16, 2019 at 8:54 PM Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> So what's your judgement on the ideal injection altitude?
>>>>
>>>> Andrew
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, 16 Dec 2019, 10:36 Govindasamy Bala, <[email protected]>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Andrew,
>>>>> Many modeling groups (e.g. Tilmes and others) have already performed
>>>>> simulations that inject aerosols at different heights and thus have
>>>>> included the sedimentation effects and many many other effects. These
>>>>> studies simulate the NET effects and hence hard to interpret and quantify
>>>>> the individual effects. The strength of our ESD paper is that it changes
>>>>> only one variable and identifies its individual contribution to the total
>>>>> problem.
>>>>>
>>>>> What we have learnt during the course is that there are too many
>>>>> variables in the aerosol SRM problem (transport, location of injection,
>>>>> aerosol-cloud interaction, aerosol-radiation interaction, aerosol micro
>>>>> physics and the resulting size distribution of the aerosols, etc.) and the
>>>>> resulting uncertainties could be too large. This is of course known to 
>>>>> many
>>>>> of us for a long time......
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Dec 16, 2019 at 3:41 PM Andrew Lockley <
>>>>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> If I understand from the email below , you used aerosols with no fall
>>>>>> speed. Are experiments planned to simulate aerosol descent?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Andrew
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, 16 Dec 2019, 05:43 Govindasamy Bala, <[email protected]>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Andrews,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> We did not do experiments with aerosols above 22 km. It is likely
>>>>>>> that the cooling effect will be larger when aerosols are at 25 km. 
>>>>>>> Beyond
>>>>>>> that it is likely that the additional cooling benefits disappear. We 
>>>>>>> need
>>>>>>> more experiments to confirm this.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The sensitivity to height in our paper arises mainly because of the
>>>>>>> increases in stratospheric water vapor (which partly offsets the cooling
>>>>>>> efficiency of the aerosols) that is associated with the stratospheric
>>>>>>> heating by the aerosols. This increase in stratospheric water vapor is
>>>>>>> largest when the aerosols (and the heating) is close to the tropopause.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> In our paper, we have isolated the effect of just one factor. As
>>>>>>> Doug has pointed out, the sedimentation effect would also lead to more
>>>>>>> cooling if aerosols are injected at higher altitudes...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Best,
>>>>>>> Bala
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Sun, Dec 15, 2019 at 9:05 PM Douglas MacMartin <
>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> This is a great study to understand the effectiveness per unit mass
>>>>>>>> **in the stratosphere**.  Also keep in mind that there’s an
>>>>>>>> additional factor, that at lower altitudes it takes higher injection 
>>>>>>>> rates
>>>>>>>> to achieve the same burden in the stratosphere (i.e., lower lifetime at
>>>>>>>> lower injected altitude).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> If the only thing you cared about was cost, then since there are
>>>>>>>> existing studies demonstrating that you can design an aircraft to get 
>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>> ~20-21km, we roughly know that it could be done, but higher altitude
>>>>>>>> injection means less total sulfur injected and hence smaller side 
>>>>>>>> effects,
>>>>>>>> and should be better understood both on the modeling and implementation
>>>>>>>> cost as the trade may well be worth it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> doug
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *From:* [email protected] <
>>>>>>>> [email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Govindasamy Bala
>>>>>>>> *Sent:* Saturday, December 14, 2019 9:38 PM
>>>>>>>> *To:* Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
>>>>>>>> *Cc:* geoengineering <[email protected]>
>>>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: [geo] Climate system response to stratospheric
>>>>>>>> sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Dear Andrew,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Thanks for the posting. The heights studied were 16, 19 and 22 km,
>>>>>>>> height that are relevant to solar radiation modification problem.. The
>>>>>>>> final paragraph in the paper is worth reading to get more quantitative
>>>>>>>> information from this modeling study.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "To summarize, for the same mass, the efficiency (defined
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> as changes in surface temperature per Tg S) of volcanic
>>>>>>>> aerosol is less when it is prescribed at lower altitudes in the
>>>>>>>> stratosphere (Fig. 9). For example, in our simulations, there is
>>>>>>>> a surface cooling of 0.44K for each teragram of sulfur placed
>>>>>>>> in the stratosphere at about 16 km altitude (100 hPa). There
>>>>>>>> is an additional surface cooling of 0.15K per Tg S when the
>>>>>>>> prescribed altitude is increased from about 16 km to about
>>>>>>>> 22 km (37 hPa)."
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 12:55 AM Andrew Lockley <
>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Poster's note : this has significant implications for the
>>>>>>>> engineering of delivery systems. I can't do the pressure altitude
>>>>>>>> conversion in my head, but it's a lot higher than what's generally been
>>>>>>>> planned for. We're gonna need a bigger boat.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/885/2019/
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols:
>>>>>>>> sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan et al. *Received: 01
>>>>>>>> May 2019 – Discussion started: 23 May 2019 – Revised: 24 Oct
>>>>>>>> 2019 – Accepted: 08 Nov 2019 – Published: 13 Dec 2019
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Abstract
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> top <https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/885/2019/#top>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Reduction of surface temperatures of the planet by injecting
>>>>>>>> sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere has been suggested as an option to
>>>>>>>> reduce the amount of human-induced climate warming. Several previous
>>>>>>>> studies have shown that for a specified amount of injection, aerosols
>>>>>>>> injected at a higher altitude in the stratosphere would produce more
>>>>>>>> cooling because aerosol sedimentation would take longer. In this 
>>>>>>>> study, we
>>>>>>>> isolate and assess the sensitivity of stratospheric aerosol radiative
>>>>>>>> forcing and the resulting climate change to the altitude of the aerosol
>>>>>>>> layer. We study this by prescribing a specified amount of sulfate 
>>>>>>>> aerosols,
>>>>>>>> of a size typical of what is produced by volcanoes, distributed 
>>>>>>>> uniformly
>>>>>>>> at different levels in the stratosphere. We find that stratospheric 
>>>>>>>> sulfate
>>>>>>>> aerosols are more effective in cooling climate when they reside higher 
>>>>>>>> in
>>>>>>>> the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of effective
>>>>>>>> radiative forcing: volcanic aerosols heat the stratospheric layers 
>>>>>>>> where
>>>>>>>> they reside, altering stratospheric water vapor content, tropospheric
>>>>>>>> stability, and clouds, and consequently the effective radiative 
>>>>>>>> forcing. We
>>>>>>>> show that the magnitude of the effective radiative forcing is larger 
>>>>>>>> when
>>>>>>>> aerosols are prescribed at higher altitudes and the differences in
>>>>>>>> radiative forcing due to fast adjustment processes can account for a
>>>>>>>> substantial part of the dependence of the amount of cooling on aerosol
>>>>>>>> altitude. These altitude effects would be additional to dependences on
>>>>>>>> aerosol microphysics, transport, and sedimentation, which are outside 
>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>> scope of this study. The cooling effectiveness of stratospheric sulfate
>>>>>>>> aerosols likely increases with the altitude of the aerosol layer both
>>>>>>>> because aerosols higher in the stratosphere have larger effective 
>>>>>>>> radiative
>>>>>>>> forcing and because they have higher stratospheric residence time; 
>>>>>>>> these
>>>>>>>> two effects are likely to be of comparable importance.
>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-04wbNfg0E3q_8GtwXay88n_2r%2BhzYfVfrNPjq9SpJd9pg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>
>>>>>>>> .
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> With Best Wishes,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> G. Bala
>>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>>> Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
>>>>>>>> Indian Institute of Science
>>>>>>>> Bangalore - 560 012
>>>>>>>> India
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Tel: +91 80 2293 3428; +91 80 2293 2505
>>>>>>>> Fax: +91 80 2360 0865; +91 80 2293 3425
>>>>>>>> Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
>>>>>>>> Web:http://dccc.iisc.ac.in/dr_govindasamy_bala_profile.html
>>>>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --
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>>>>>>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAD7fhV%3Dc5Q4XVod8rAide3VNOmN1uyPbp6B6TCRKij474F_Meg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer>
>>>>>>>> .
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> With Best Wishes,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>> G. Bala
>>>>>>> Professor
>>>>>>> Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
>>>>>>> Indian Institute of Science
>>>>>>> Bangalore - 560 012
>>>>>>> India
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Tel: +91 80 2293 3428; +91 80 2293 2505
>>>>>>> Fax: +91 80 2360 0865; +91 80 2293 3425
>>>>>>> Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
>>>>>>> Web:http://dccc.iisc.ac.in/dr_govindasamy_bala_profile.html
>>>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> With Best Wishes,
>>>>>
>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> G. Bala
>>>>> Professor
>>>>> Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
>>>>> Indian Institute of Science
>>>>> Bangalore - 560 012
>>>>> India
>>>>>
>>>>> Tel: +91 80 2293 3428; +91 80 2293 2505
>>>>> Fax: +91 80 2360 0865; +91 80 2293 3425
>>>>> Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
>>>>> Web:http://dccc.iisc.ac.in/dr_govindasamy_bala_profile.html
>>>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> With Best Wishes,
>>>
>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> G. Bala
>>> Professor
>>> Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
>>> Indian Institute of Science
>>> Bangalore - 560 012
>>> India
>>>
>>> Tel: +91 80 2293 3428; +91 80 2293 2505
>>> Fax: +91 80 2360 0865; +91 80 2293 3425
>>> Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
>>> Web:http://dccc.iisc.ac.in/dr_govindasamy_bala_profile.html
>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>>
>
> --
> With Best Wishes,
>
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
> G. Bala
> Professor
> Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
> Indian Institute of Science
> Bangalore - 560 012
> India
>
> Tel: +91 80 2293 3428; +91 80 2293 2505
> Fax: +91 80 2360 0865; +91 80 2293 3425
> Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
> Web:http://dccc.iisc.ac.in/dr_govindasamy_bala_profile.html
> -------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

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