I have read this article <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509?s=03> and want to emphasise its welcome lead conclusion that “the value of information that eliminates uncertainty about Solar Geoengineering efficacy is up to roughly $10 trillion.”
This is an immense benefit, 5000 times greater than the cost estimate of $2 billion. Governments should stump up immediately to provide the budget and political agreement to address this yawning information deficit. It should also be noted that geoengineering has an existential either/or dimension, as possibly the only way to prevent catastrophic planetary phase shift that is beyond costing. I was also pleased to see the reference to An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2019RG000678> which rebuts the IPCC claim that net zero emissions could stabilise the climate in any meaningful way. Despite this, the article quite strangely emphasises spurious risks of geoengineering deployment, while totally failing to mention its major expected benefits. It should have noted that brightening the planet and related methods is the only systemic way to mitigate immediate risks of extreme weather, biodiversity loss, tipping points and sea level rise in this decade. These risks are very costly, harmful and dangerous. I suppose it is about bending over backwards to seem balanced and placate hostile critics, but the actual result is that the scientific argument is not balanced. A more balanced presentation would recognise that advantages of brightening the planet are prima facie far greater than the imagined harms conjured up by ignorant political opponents. Robert Tulip From: [email protected] <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Tuesday, 5 July 2022 11:49 PM To: geoengineering <[email protected]> Subject: [geo] The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost of bias https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509?s=03 The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost of bias Anthony R. Harding, Mariia Belaia & David W. Keith ABSTRACT Solar geoengineering (SG) might be able to reduce climate risks if used to supplement emissions cuts and carbon removal. Yet, the wisdom of proceeding with research to reduce its uncertainties is disputed. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to estimate that the value of information that reduces uncertainty about SG efficacy. We find the value of reducing uncertainty by one-third by 2030 is around $4.5 trillion, most of which comes from reduced climate damages rather than reduced mitigation costs. Reducing uncertainty about SG efficacy is similar in value to reducing uncertainty about climate sensitivity. We analyse the cost of over-confidence about SG that causes too little emissions cuts and too much SG. Consistent with concerns about SG’s moral hazard problem, we find an over-confident bias is a serious and costly concern; but, we also find under-confidence that prematurely rules out SG can be roughly as costly. Biased judgments are costly in both directions. A coin has two sides. Our analysis quantitatively demonstrates the risk-risk trade-off around SG and reinforces the value of research that can reduce uncertainty. Key policy insights The value of reducing uncertainty about solar geoengineering is comparable to the value of reducing uncertainty about other key climate factors, such as equilibrium climate sensitivity. The benefits of research that reduces uncertainty about solar geoengineering may be more than a thousand times larger than the cost of a large-scale research programme. Under-confidence in solar geoengineering’s effectiveness can be as costly as over-confidence. The majority of the benefits of reduced uncertainty come from reducing climate damages rather than from slowing emissions reductions. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> . To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-07pxpp%3D-3E861_o6oJvmRGGOkg9baEH%3D%2BCkpecuwLQezw%40mail.gmail.com <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-07pxpp%3D-3E861_o6oJvmRGGOkg9baEH%3D%2BCkpecuwLQezw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> . -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/016d01d8916a%247bc41ac0%24734c5040%24%40yahoo.com.au.
