Thanks Renaud. I think it would be an excellent requirement that a short simple video presentation be produced along with each paper as this paper does.
What I’m not clear about - and I haven’t read the original paper - is what appears to be the presumption that having a high level of confidence in geoengineering will automatically lead to a reduction in efforts to decarbonize. And therefore a substantial cost results from overestimating the potential benefits of Geo engineering. The HPAC approach calls for vigorous decarbonization along with direct climate cooling and CDR. None of these three broad dimensions of effective climate policy should be seen and cannot be substitutes for the other two. Therefore there would be no cost for overestimating the benefits but a huge almost infinite cost for underestimating the benefits and therefore refusing to invest in the research and/or deployment needed. This of course is largely the real world situation we face right now. Herb Herb Simmens Author A Climate Vocabulary of the Future @herbsimmens > On Jul 13, 2022, at 1:42 PM, Renaud de RICHTER <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > This short movie explains well the article > https://player.vimeo.com/video/714634132 > >> Le mer. 6 juil. 2022 à 20:59, 'Robert Tulip' via geoengineering >> <[email protected]> a écrit : >> I have read this article and want to emphasise its welcome lead conclusion >> that “the value of information that eliminates uncertainty about Solar >> Geoengineering efficacy is up to roughly $10 trillion.” >> >> >> >> This is an immense benefit, 5000 times greater than the cost estimate of $2 >> billion. Governments should stump up immediately to provide the budget and >> political agreement to address this yawning information deficit. It should >> also be noted that geoengineering has an existential either/or dimension, as >> possibly the only way to prevent catastrophic planetary phase shift that is >> beyond costing. >> >> >> >> I was also pleased to see the reference to An Assessment of Earth's Climate >> Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence which rebuts the IPCC claim >> that net zero emissions could stabilise the climate in any meaningful way. >> >> >> >> Despite this, the article quite strangely emphasises spurious risks of >> geoengineering deployment, while totally failing to mention its major >> expected benefits. It should have noted that brightening the planet and >> related methods is the only systemic way to mitigate immediate risks of >> extreme weather, biodiversity loss, tipping points and sea level rise in >> this decade. These risks are very costly, harmful and dangerous. I suppose >> it is about bending over backwards to seem balanced and placate hostile >> critics, but the actual result is that the scientific argument is not >> balanced. >> >> >> >> A more balanced presentation would recognise that advantages of brightening >> the planet are prima facie far greater than the imagined harms conjured up >> by ignorant political opponents. >> >> >> >> Robert Tulip >> >> >> >> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> On >> Behalf Of Andrew Lockley >> Sent: Tuesday, 5 July 2022 11:49 PM >> To: geoengineering <[email protected]> >> Subject: [geo] The value of information about solar geoengineering and the >> two-sided cost of bias >> >> >> >> >> https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509?s=03 >> >> >> >> The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost >> of bias >> >> Anthony R. Harding, Mariia Belaia & David W. Keith >> >> >> >> ABSTRACT >> >> >> >> Solar geoengineering (SG) might be able to reduce climate risks if used to >> supplement emissions cuts and carbon removal. Yet, the wisdom of proceeding >> with research to reduce its uncertainties is disputed. Here, we use an >> integrated assessment model to estimate that the value of information that >> reduces uncertainty about SG efficacy. We find the value of reducing >> uncertainty by one-third by 2030 is around $4.5 trillion, most of which >> comes from reduced climate damages rather than reduced mitigation costs. >> Reducing uncertainty about SG efficacy is similar in value to reducing >> uncertainty about climate sensitivity. We analyse the cost of >> over-confidence about SG that causes too little emissions cuts and too much >> SG. Consistent with concerns about SG’s moral hazard problem, we find an >> over-confident bias is a serious and costly concern; but, we also find >> under-confidence that prematurely rules out SG can be roughly as costly. >> Biased judgments are costly in both directions. A coin has two sides. Our >> analysis quantitatively demonstrates the risk-risk trade-off around SG and >> reinforces the value of research that can reduce uncertainty. >> >> >> >> Key policy insights >> >> >> >> The value of reducing uncertainty about solar geoengineering is comparable >> to the value of reducing uncertainty about other key climate factors, such >> as equilibrium climate sensitivity. >> >> >> >> The benefits of research that reduces uncertainty about solar geoengineering >> may be more than a thousand times larger than the cost of a large-scale >> research programme. >> >> >> >> Under-confidence in solar geoengineering’s effectiveness can be as costly as >> over-confidence. >> >> >> >> The majority of the benefits of reduced uncertainty come from reducing >> climate damages rather than from slowing emissions reductions. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-07pxpp%3D-3E861_o6oJvmRGGOkg9baEH%3D%2BCkpecuwLQezw%40mail.gmail.com. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/016d01d8916a%247bc41ac0%24734c5040%24%40yahoo.com.au. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAHodn9_TreELLwTNnW3MzSyx0ZzteicTkdmJ58ByR-gi%2BjK4LQ%40mail.gmail.com. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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