----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Adams" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "globalchange" <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, July 27, 2006 6:20 PM
Subject: [Global Change: 417] Re: Op-ed on policy and probability
>
> Robert A. Rohde wrote:
>> The individual who I am talking about basically believes a) that
>> climate modelling is too simplified and tuned to be useful,
>
> You should be able to get a major publication out of that one,
> by studying the characteristics of the models.
But the climate modelers assigned to peer review it would reject such a
paper out of hand!
>> b) that
>> most of what gets published in the climate literature is dodgy and
>> shouldn't stand up to scrutiny,
>
> Well then, scutinize them.
Well, take the MSU and radiosonde measurements. They "proved" that
the MSU measurements had a slight flaw, and now they are saying that
the radiosondes must be wrong because they do not fit their new values
they have invented for the MSUs to fit their models.
>> and c) the climate is basically too
>> complicated for us to predict.
>
> Discover the real factor(s) that are making the measurements appear to
> track the model predictions.
The measurements do not track the model predictions (see above), but the
modelers claim they do. For instance in the Hadley model the ISR and
OSR at the TOA do not balance when running the system in equilibrium!
Moreover, the models do not give the correct height for the cloud base, but
the weather men know how much to correct for that error. Then the climate
modelers say their models must be right because they are the same as the
ones used by meteorologists, and they work. They don't! The correct
forecasts are produced because the weather men know where to tweak the
computer output.
Meanwhile the climatologist have been trying to tweak the cloud schemes
to make them work, but they cant because the basic radiation model is
wrong.
> Of course, armchair skepticism is unproductive regardless of its
> content, if you are not even willing to even reach out of your armchair
> and touch a keyboard (which is all it takes to study the models after
> all.)
No one will listen to sense, they are too skeptical!
Cheers, Alastair.
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