I appreciate the mention that climate change is not the only major
problem we face. I have some hopes that this group will bring it into
a larger context, and some concern that the newfound public
fascination with climate change actually masks other problems.
It might be of interest to try to compile a list of the first order
problems that humanity must find a solution to. Is it fair to assume
that we all have the goals of ending widespread poverty and
stabilized population with a peak at somewhere between 9G and 10G?
Most long-range global planning is based on these two assumptions.
Here is a draft catalog of global issues.
* revival of tribalization and vicious cycles of violence mixed with
and driven by a resurgence of superstition
* fresh water supply and hence food supply
* viability of the ocean under overfishing and acidification
* loss of biodiversity; advance of opportunistic species (usually
perceived as unpleasant, and likely to be disease vectors) and decline
of niche species (benign and usually perceived as attractive)
* advance of disease agents among humans due to overpopulation and
increased travel
* decline of democracy under pressure by improved propaganda techniques
* climate change
In remission but always worth considering:
* possible revival of threat of major nuclear war
There is no guarantee that any of them will become catastrophic
(except perhaps that some ocean ecologists assert that the decline of
the oceans is already in some sense catastrophic and to some extent
irreversible). Notice, however, that many of them exasperate each
other. But there is, I think, little sign of the seriousness of
purpose and cogency of thought at a wholistic level that this tangle
of daunting problems ought to motivate. I think previous generations
would have risen to the occasion far more effectively than we are
doing.
In this context I think the ongoing economic self-mutilation by the US
referred to by John McCormick is hardly good news, but is really
somewhat local. However, it is in part a consequence of a couple of
the dangerous trends I mentioned.
Also we must consider the possibility that IPCC 2001 was too
optimistic. It will be interesting to see the new WGI report, to say
the least. I am starting to wonder why it is late.
mt
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