[Global Change: 748] Re: Global temperature highest in millennia

[Alastair McDonald]

> Today I saw a blog questioning AGW on the grounds that the > present hurricane season is milder than last year's.   So that's all right then :-)     Global warming has gone away now we have a mild El Nino which has brought it usual drought of hurricanes in the North Atlantic.  No doubt the wild fires in the US, which are at an all time record, were all started by careless smokers and have nothing to do with AGW :-( > Most likely, ten years from now nothing major will have > changed in how we deal with carbon, and sea level will > not have risen 20 m, as many people have the impression > we are claiming, and as Gore and Hansen habitually imply > without stating. The "scary scenario" thing definitely cuts > both ways.   It was another important US scientist, Stephen Schneider, who advocated the "scary scenario."  His advice has been ignored.  Instead, gigantic rambling IPCC reports have been produced under the direction of (the Brit) Sir John Houghton and have achieved nothing, except to fool the scientific community into believing that something was being done, and that their consciences are clear. > The fact that we are quite likely committing the next four > centuries to relentless sea level rise, possibly with some > rather spectacular surges thrown in, is indeed a moral > question as Al Gore says. Implicitly, it is not an economic > one, at least not in conventional economic terms, since > in economic terms what happens two centuries out is > not a matter that we should concern ourselves with.   So you are happy to ditch morality in the name of economics?  The dollar is mightier than the prayer book. > It is entirely plausible that Hansen's intuition is correct > that the tipping point for the ice sheets is upon us, and > that we have a short time to act, and that therefore we > should act. (Unfortunately, it's at least as likely that it > is either too late already, or that we have plenty of time. > We just don't know.)   You may not know how much time we have, because you are burying your head in a snow drift, but the Arctic scientists who do know are telling you that the sea ice, and land ice, a and the permafrost is disappearing fast.   > It's also the case that the consequences of this particular > tipping point will accrue to our distant descendants.   That's all right then.  We won't be here when the sea level is 20m higher.  It will only rise 2 meters in our life time, and that is just 10% of  20 m - nothing to worry about. > There are plausibly other tipping points though. I > saw a talk by a mild-mannered Alaskan ecologist today. > He showed some stunning pictures of very large scale > environmental disruption. Much of Alaska has already > tipped, sea level or otherwise. > > I am not sure how to convey the nature of the threat > so the public will understand it. What will happen really > is outside our historical experience.   Tell the truth.  If we have set in motion a 20 m sea level rise, then say so. > I very much dislike the sly way people are being led > to expect meters of sea level rise on a short time scale. > On the other hand, I share Hansen's impression that > we do not have many decades to delay taking the > matter seriously before its consequences start to limit > our ability to act. I would be very pleased to find a > convincing argument to the contrary. It's a quandary, > to say the least.   Whereas the lifetime of the Arctic sea ice has been shortening, the rate of melt of the Greenland ice has been accelerating, and so has the rise in sea level. Telling the public that sea level rise has increased from 0.2 mm per year to 0.4 mm per year is what you want? That seems to me to be a sly way of saying don't worry - nothing will happen in your life time.   I am disappointed in you Michael. I thought you were too much of a realist to join those deniers James and William.   Cheers, Alastair.   --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to globalchange@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---