> The fact that we are quite likely committing the next four> centuries to relentless sea level rise, possibly with some> rather spectacular surges thrown in, is indeed a moral> question as Al Gore says. Implicitly, it is not an economic> one, at least not in conventional economic terms, since> in economic terms what happens two centuries out is> not a matter that we should concern ourselves with.So you are happy to ditch morality in the name of economics?
No. Whatever gives you that idea?
> I am not sure how to convey the nature of the threat> so the public will understand it. What will happen really> is outside our historical experience.Tell the truth. If we have set in motion a 20 m sea level rise,then say so.
I just did.
> I very much dislike the sly way people are being led> to expect meters of sea level rise on a short time scale.> On the other hand, I share Hansen's impression that> we do not have many decades to delay taking the> matter seriously before its consequences start to limit> our ability to act. I would be very pleased to find a> convincing argument to the contrary. It's a quandary,> to say the least.Whereas the lifetime of the Arctic sea ice has beenshortening, the rate of melt of the Greenland ice has beenaccelerating, and so has the rise in sea level. Telling thepublic that sea level rise has increased from 0.2 mm peryear to 0.4 mm per year is what you want? That seemsto me to be a sly way of saying don't worry - nothingwill happen in your life time.
You just advised telling the truth. The truth is that on the balance of the evidence, this particular threat doesn't really bite, doesn't really have massive consequences on massive populations, for some time. Even if we have already passed the tipping point or will shortly (which seems very plausible to me) we are far from the crashing point.
This is not to say it doesn't matter.
On the contrary, the conclusion that such a thing might not matter very much is at the root of my skepticism about economics as applied to long time scales.
I am disappointed in you Michael. I thought you were toomuch of a realist to join those deniers James and William.
When push comes to shove I cast my lot with people who are interested in what the truth is, in how to find out, in how to communicate it, and in how to decide what to do about it. That's not denial.
mt
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