On Sat, 23 Jun 2007, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: >> Is [2m sea level rise this century] "can't be eliminated" or " not very >> unlikely" or what? Really quite >> improbable would be my view. I don't think ice sheet[s] behave like >> champagne. > > Just wondering, do you believe the 2C target is useful, and if so on > what basis? You don't seem to be buying the "ice sheets are going to > collapse by paleo analogy and so we are likely to see multi metre sea > level rise in 100-300 years" supporting point for one. You have been > good at confusing me about this. It's not that I agree/disagree with > you, I just don't understand what you actually believe. > > On the one hand, you produce a post like this (Help me here defining > dangerous climate change): > http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/05/help_me_here_defining_dangerou.php > > and then you write that you've come to believe more and more that 2C > is a useful target, and that really costs don't matter given the > necessity of sticking to the target.
I don't know, is the honest answer. I don't think there is good evidence at the moment that there are any clear "physical" dangerous things by 2100 - SLR being the obvious. It seems more likely that biological type things might be a problem. But I'm less well equipped to judge this, and have never seriously studied it. Reading a bit, I've decided that the bio-problems stuff may be a bit more firmly based than I'd thought. 2 oC appears to be somewhat arbitrary, though. -W. William M Connolley | [EMAIL PROTECTED] | http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/wmc/ Climate Modeller, British Antarctic Survey | 07985 935400 -- This message (and any attachments) is for the recipient only. NERC is subject to the Freedom of Information Act 2000 and the contents of this email and any reply you make may be disclosed by NERC unless it is exempt from release under the Act. Any material supplied to NERC may be stored in an electronic records management system. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
