Decadal GISP2 Variability during the Holocene I take the Holocene as beginning 9900 ypb (years before present), the draining of Galcial Lake Aggassiz, to 1850 CE, 100 ypb.
[dates before present (1950 CE)] from -9902.24 -30.6752 to -95.1409 -31.5913 with the central Greenland ice core temperatures. The extreme temperatures and measurement intrvals in the data from [1] are minT=~32.442 maxT=~28.702 range= 3.740 minI= 2.700 maxI= 79.670 meanI= 13.38 y sD= 5.15 y for the 734 measurements. Via linear interpolation derived data at each 10 year intervals provides 981 points from 9900 ypb to 100 ypb. The change in temperature from each data point to the next is used to form a Markoff matrix of the transitions from one temperature bin to the one at the next time. The maximum temperature transsition is 0.48 K. We also have the maximum length run of nothing but transitions to higher temperature bins: maximum length up-run = 7 from -8200.00 to -8130.00 up 1.50 K, the recovery from the "8.2 kya event" which is associated with the super-eruption (VEI 7) of Kurile Lake and other volcanic activity either somewhat earlier or later: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm The Markoff matrix gives the probability of the transition from the temperature bin for the row to the temperature bin for the column. Markoff matrix (as percentages) [bin interval = 0.20 K] bin| 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 ---+--------------------------------------------------------- 00 | 86 14 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 01 | 05 74 21 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 02 | 00 07 82 11 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 03 | 00 00 23 61 16 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 04 | 00 00 00 13 70 17 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 05 | 00 00 00 03 08 73 14 03 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 06 | 00 00 00 00 03 08 68 20 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 07 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 15 70 15 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 18 61 21 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 09 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 17 68 15 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 10 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 14 70 16 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 11 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 17 71 12 00 00 00 00 00 00 12 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 17 71 12 00 00 00 00 00 13 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 23 64 10 03 00 00 00 14 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 17 70 10 03 00 00 15 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 26 63 11 00 00 16 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 16 68 11 05 17 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 20 67 13 18 | 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 20 80 The main feature to note is that the matrix is almost tridiagonal: the temperature most probably stays in the same bin for the next decade, but with small probabilities may transitiion either up or down one bin. There are a few cases, bins 05, 06, 13, 14 and 16, where the temperature, with quite low probability, went down or up two bins. The recovery from the 8.2 kybp event is from bin 00 to bin 07 with a a probability of 0.000002462. This exemplifies the fact that the climate is not actually a Markoff chain, i.e., a random process. There is a definite cause, sulfate aerosols and the subsequent climate recovery thereafter, (NGRIP data). But it is instructive to use the Markoff chain, random process, concept to consider the following run up in temperaturesi since the 1950s: http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/10yave.jpg to ask how probable this is, given the data. To do requires converting the certral Greenland GISP2 bin size of 0.20 K to the temperature anomaly for the HadCRUTv3 data. Based on a statement that the 8.2 kybp event depressed temperatures in the tropics about 3 K, it appears that 1 K GISP = 1.5 K HadCRUT3v might be about right. I welcome discussion, especially regarding the conversion factor. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
