10 billion has the disadvantage that it is worse than 9 billion, but
it has the advantage that it is close enough for these sorts of
calculations and makes the arithmetic easier! I'd like something more
precise than "too many", but an error of less than 11.11% seems close
enough for a first cut.
The solar power driving the weather and the ocean circulation is still
about 4 orders of magnitude larger than human energy usage. Let's
stipulate that the current energy consumption of the average American
can be scaled up by 25; let's stipulate fusion power for instance if
you can't bring yourself to believe in that much wind and solar.
The thing I am wondering is what we will be eating. For one thing, I
understand that natural gas is involved in bulk in obtaining nitrogen
fertilizer. What are the impacts of the gas running out? This is a
chemical process and I believe that alternative energy supplies don't
figure into it directly.As usual approaching a field from the outside,
one finds plenty of handwringing on both sides but not much in the way
of quantitative reasoning. I am sure somebody has run the numbers, but
who, and where?
This is nothing new of course, but I wonder if it is ethical to
consume at the current average American rate (never mind much higher
rates common among the wealthy)? People have asked this question many
times before, and more than a few have answered in the negative. I'm
reserving judgment even on that yes/no question. I'd like to see the
arithmetic either way. In the end this is not a binary question. The
sustainable mean impact is a quantitative question and an important
one. It should be answered in a quantitative way.
mt
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