On Jan 6, 10:50 pm, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote:
> I was looking for a source for heat pollution - it seems to be just
> another global apocalypse scenario - but do take everything on the
> human knowledge site with a bucket of salt. Lucky we only have to
> wait to 2012 for the end of the universe (LOL).
>
> There is a new theory of climate that is a little more serious
> -http://www.nosams.whoi.edu/PDFs/papers/tsonis-grl_newtheoryforclimate...
> - it goes beyond the simple physics of gases and radiation to the
> modern physics of complex systems. It views climate on decadal
> timescales as an emergent property of complex and dynamic Earth
> systems. There are all sorts of future possibilities - including
> extremes. The ultimate 'strange attractors' seem to be states +/- 10
> degrees C but being definitive beyond next month seems theoretically
> impossible. Correlation certainly won't work as there is no simple
> cause and effect.
>
> Chaos theory explains why it hasn't warmed in the past decade. Thus
> is the battle lost and it may take another generation or 2 to take any
> action...
>
> I am, at any rate, missing the point of science that needs to be
> definitive and have scary answers. This is particularly the case
> where science is synthesis rather than hypothesis and experiment.
Robo guy, posting such long winded repeats of earlier rants is not
likely to endear you with the moderators. Your fixation on bhe papers
by Tsonis just shows your lack of understanding. The various indices
which Tsonis et al. use don't cause anything, they just capture the
variation in the weather patterns. There is no reason to assume that
they are the only forces acting on the climate system, indeed we know
of several external forcings which are time variant. Without
understanding causality, it's a fools game to jump into prediction.
Chaos "theory" doesn't explain why there are correlations between the
indices.
For example, tell us what you think the NAO means? Let's also hear
your discussion of the THC process and potential for variation.
E. S.
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