Again, you are apparently missing my point. The analysis of Tsonis et
al. and the follow on work by Swanson et al. (not me) don't predict or
explain the slight reduction in the rate of warming seen since the
rather warm year in 1998. Correlations between indices do not capture
the forcing. While some think otherwise, the NAO only captures the
pressure differences, not the cause of those pressure differences.
The changes in the Icelandic Low are the result of the storm paths,
not the cause of those storms moving closer to or farther away from
Iceland. From physics, the atmosphere, being a fluid, can not "pull",
only "push".
On Jan 9, 5:11 am, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote:
> I think the evidence for climate shifts on decadal scales is evident
> in science of all sorts. Global shifts in temperature, rainfall, the
> 'Great Pacific Climate Shift' of 1976/1977, the instrumental
> temperature record. As indicated in the 2002 panel discussion of the
> National Academy. Tsonis et al have the virtue (in peer reviewed
> studies) of using numerical techniques to quantify. The numerical
> technique was not concerned with cause and effect - or cross
> correlation in the accepted sense - but in detecting patterns in
> signals. A network methodology as in the quote I provided earlier.
> Show me the papers disputing Tsonis - not simply your frankly silly
> claim that because they didn't factor out ENSO and volcanos from ENSO
> and other signals that the studies are invalidated.
The ENSO index is not a force, it's a result. Volcanos, solar
variability, AGE, the lunar cycle, are external forces. The changes
to the THC from AGW might also be considered "external" as in, Not
Natural.
> I sure I don't have a clue what you mean by 'speeding up'. The
> concept is that small changes in initial conditions triggers large
> flucuation in climate which then oscillates about a new state for a
> while. The oscillations tend to damp out (but not neccessarily)in
> complex systems providing a signal of the next shift.
There is evidence that the Antarctic Polar Vortex has increased in
strength, i.e., speeded up, as one result of ozone depletion. Also,
if the THC slows, it's likely that tropic to pole circulation would
increase to take up the slack in the tropic to pole heat transfer,
especially in winter.
> I link to the UNESCO site that provides ready access to indices that
> are updated by thousands of scientists around the world. And you
> simply accuse me of provising unjustified claims - a knee jerk no it
> just ain't so. Show me the science damn it.
OK, Here's a graph of the Winter NAO data from Hurrell plotted with a
curve from the application of an 11 year centered moving average:
http://i454.photobucket.com/albums/qq268/Know_body/NAO_Win1.jpg
And here's a cross plot of the two curves:
http://i454.photobucket.com/albums/qq268/Know_body/NAO_Win2.jpg
The straight line in this second graph is just the NAO curve plotted
against itself, ie., a 100% correlation. Notice how poorly the MA
follows the straight line. I'll leave it to you to do the correlation
calculation and explain why you think Tsonis' use of time series so
filtered is valid.
>...Your claim that these
> indices are not relevant because of global warming is unreflective
> nonsense. Somehow ENSO and the like have no relevance for
> understanding climate? Please.
Where did I claim that ENSO had no relevance for understanding
climate?? My claim was that the technique of Tsonis is not
predictive.
> You are just being foolish now.
No, I think you are grasping at straws. Anyway, here's a comment
regarding ENSO which just appeared. You can read the paper, if you
have AGU access.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/a-rebuttal-to-a-cool-climate-paper/
E. S.
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