Dear Hank, What is your point? You know the quote is from realclimate?
>From the Knutti paper - thanks for the link by the way. 'Since anyone can contribute, it is simply unclear how to interpret the set of models in the first place. But because most modeling groups only contribute their “best” model, all of them carefully calibrated to the same observations, and no group is deliberately trying to push their model to extreme behavior, it is possible that the multi-model ensemble underestimates the uncertainty in the climate system. Although this is hard to confirm or reject, there may even be an element of ‘social anchoring’ and a tendency towards consensus: for quantities that cannot be measured for example climate sensitivity), it is easier to be in the middle of the crowd than far outside.' Knutti also talks about structural instability. With the 'sensitive dependence' this places 'severe limitations on predictability' - See Figue 1 in the McWilliams link. You need to speak English if I'm to understand. Cheers Robert On Feb 2, 6:12 am, Hank Roberts <[email protected]> wrote: > >http://www.pnas.org/content/98/22/12342.full > > ... how can we talk > > meaningfully about “the climate” and “climate change”? > >http://www.pnas.org/content/104/21/8709.full.pdf+html... > > http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knuttir/papershttp://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/knutt... -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
