Dear oh dear... the "no warming in the last 10 years" furphy again.
Those making pronouncements on trends in the global temperature record over the last century or less would do well to acquaint themselves with the following piece by Tamino, assessing the noise as an ARMA(1,1) process: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/how-long/ In a nutshell: you need at least 15 years of data to discern the underlying warming trend, to a statistically significant extent, from the noise of natural variability. For those bamboozled by this level of statistical processing, the following piece, also from the redoubtable Tamino, illustrates nicely how short term temperature fluctuations in recent decades are a good match for an ongoing underlying warming trend of somewhere between 0.15 and 0.2 degrees per decade: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/riddle-me-this/ On 8 February 2010 08:50, Robert Indigo Ellison <[email protected]> wrote: > That would be the lack of warming from January 1999 to January 2010 > (in any of the monthly records) and potential for non warming to > continue for another decade or so. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
