I don't believe this at all. There are thousands of publications that address climate variability from the perspective of everything from dynamical systems, clouds, ocean states and cosmic rays. A few are listed below. Where indeed are the dozens of better known sceptics in this list of 5? There is climate change, obvious to everyone but Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi, but how much is natural variability and how much anthropogenic is the $64 question. How much, for instance, is clouds (and why does cloud cover incresase and decrease) and how much is greenhouse gases?
There is a lot of complexity in scientific opinion about a very complex subject. For instance the Swanson et al 2009 paper 'Has the climate recently shifted?' (see realclimate 'much ado about natural variation' for a link and an explanation). Swanson, not a notorious sceptic, suggests that the abrupt changes in 1976/1977 and 1998/2001 are dynamical responses not associated with anthropogenic climate change. The residual warming Swanson links to CO2 is about half of what is commonly quoted. I don't believe that either. Can we conceptually have both a complex and dynamical system (abrupt change) and a progressive evolution of climate? This is a pointless Procrustean exercise. It is intended to replace the need to think logically and in depth - to reinforce groupthink. 'We are many and you are few'. The saddest part is that the latter is not true either - not that the majority view is any guarantee of veracity. As Voltaire said - it's unlikely that even one person will apprehend the truth let alone the majority. NAS 2002, Abrupt climate change: inevitable surprises, NAP Ghil, M., and E. Simonnet, 2007: Nonlinear Climate Theory, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cam- bridge, UK/London/New York A UNIFIED MODELING APPROACH TO CLIMATE SYSTEM PREDICTION by James Hurrell, Gerald A. Meehl, Davi d Bader, Thomas L. Delworth , Ben Kirtman, and Bruce Wielicki, BAMA Cec. 2009 Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations James C. McWilliams, PNAS April 4, 2007 (received for review March 1, 2007) Kunkel, M. and Pierce, J. (2006), The Influence of ENSO and PDO on Idaho's Snowpack, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #GC41A-1047 Mann, M., Bradley, R. and Hughes, M., (2000), Long-term variability in the ENSO and associated teleconnections. In ENSO: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, edited by H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, pp. 357-412, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York. Mantua, N., Hare, S. Zhang, Y. Wallace, J. and Francis, R. (1997), A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, pp 1069-1079. McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14104, doi: 10.1029/2008JD011637. Mestas-Nuñez, A and Miller, A (2006), Interdecadal variability and climate change in the eastern tropical Pacific: A review, Progress in Oceanography 69 (2006) 267–284 Pallé, E., P. R. Goode, and P. Montañés-Rodríguez (2009), Interannual variations in Earth's reflectance 1999–2007, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00D03, doi: 10.1029/2008JD010734. Svensmark, H., Bondo, T. and Svensmark, J. (2009), Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2009GL038429, in press. (Climate Research News) Swanson, K.L., and A. A. Tsonis (2009), Has the climate recently shifted?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L06711, doi:10.1029/2008GL037022. Verdon, D. and Franks, S. (2006), Long-term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records, Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2005GL025052. Wang, L., Chen, W. and Huang R. (2008), Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east Asian winter monsoon, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035287. Woodward, F., Lomas, M. and Quaife, T. (2008), Global responses of terrestrial productivity to contemporary climatic oscillations, Phil Trans R Soc B 2008 363: 2779-2785. Yu, B. and Zwiers, F. (2007), The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study, Climate Dynamics, Volume 29, Numbers 7-8 / December, 2007 Clement, A., Burgmen, R. and Norris JR, (2009) Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback, Science. 2009 Jul 24;325(5939):376. On Apr 21, 6:46 pm, Erik Svensson <[email protected]> wrote: > The SVT has made a follow-up study on the scientific > literature:http://uppsalainitiativet.blogspot.com/2010/04/swedish-television-goe... > > On 21 Apr, 02:56, "David B. Benson" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > On Apr 19, 7:04 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]> > > wrote:> The formula you use is ... > > > AE(d) = k(lnCO2(d-1) - lnCO2(1870s)) - GTA(1880s) > > but in which an obvious right parenthsis was > > missing. There are no undefined terms and the > > constant k is estimated for best fit to the > > data as is subsequently mentioned. > > > The OGTR is a transient response and is, as > > pointed out, in agreement with an equilibrium > > sensitivity of about 3 K. > > > > Arrhenius needs to be understood in the light of 21st century physics? > > > Yes and all has been settled since the 1970s; the > > Arrenhius approximation is still considered good > > enough to appear in IPCC AR4. > > > Internal variability consists of ENSO, etc., but > > by taking decadal averages all that is needed is > > the AMO; if you bothered to read about it you would > > have discovered it is strongly affected by MOC rate. > > > Othr forcings need not be considered as the steady > > ones all cancel out; see IPCC AR4. The random ones > > are reflected in the AMO. > > > The abrupt shifts seen in Greenland ice cores are > > clearly the results of the dynamics of those portions > > of the cryosphere that we now longer have with us. > > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, > > moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy > > dimensions of global environmental change. > > > Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the > > submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not > > gratuitously rude. > > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > > [email protected] > > > For more options, visit this group > > athttp://groups.google.com/group/globalchange > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, > moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy > dimensions of global environmental change. > > Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the > submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not > gratuitously rude. > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > > For more options, visit this group > athttp://groups.google.com/group/globalchange- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
