I'd summarize: - Java has never been a major platform for consumer desktop apps. This really isn't changing, unless you consider Android. - Java desktop is very successful for dev tools and thousands of niche custom vertical desktop apps. This really isn't changing either. - Could you replace Java with toolset xyz? Absolutely. If whoever owns the project decides for whatever reason that they want to switch from toolset "A" to toolset "B", they can generally do so. - Java is most prominent outside the desktop for server-side, headless (no GUI) apps, and non-applied theoretical research. - For some weird reason, some variant of the question, "Is Java Dead?" is asked constantly, and this has been going on for years. It's probably representative of an anxiety in the Java community and the fact that "Java" has image and perception problems in the zeitgest of today.
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