The king of Android says 300K Android phones activated every day, that's hardly a slow-down: http://www.engadget.com/2010/12/09/andy-rubin-over-300-000-android-phones-activated-daily/
Boy I can't wait for Steve Job's next earnings call! On Dec 7, 2:50 pm, Karsten Silz <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi, > > For developers, Android loses steam: In four months, it went from > 60,000 activated devices in February to 160,00 in June (200% growth). > In the four months from August 2010 to December 2010, it went from > 200,000 to 214,000 (7% growth). From early September to the end of > October, Apple claimed growing from 230,000 devices to 275,00 devices > activated per day (about 16% growth in seven weeks). For more > details, see > here:http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/06/android_activation_pace... > > A couple of caveats: > > - Apple counts iPhones, iPod Touches and iPads in its device > activations. For developers at least, that's valid - all iOS users > install and buy apps. If you do the math based on the September > quarter results with 14.1 million iPhones and 4.2 million iPads sold > (http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/10/18results.html), this comes > out to about 153,000 iPhones and 46,000 iPads a day, with maybe > 50,000-70,000 iPod Touches per day (sales numbers are from the quarter > ending September, whereas activation numbers are from early September > and late October which makes this estimation difficult) Apple doesn't > say how many iPod Touches they sold; before the iPad really hit, it's > share in the "iWorld" was estimated to be 40% (http://www.wired.com/ > gadgetlab/2010/09/ipod-touch-sales/). > > - Many Android devices don't get activated by Google since they aren't > officially sanctioned (such as tablets, media players or Android > phones in China). At least to developers, they are less attractive > since they often don't have access to the official Google Marketplace. > These companies then set up their own app stores, putting the burden > on developers to register with different app stores. Google requires > certain hardware and software for granting access to the Google > Marketplace and has an additional verification program. > > - The only Android tablet that seems to sell well is the Galaxy Tab > with about 1 million devices sold in about 50 days, coming down to > about 20,000 devices a day (http://androidcommunity.com/samsung-hit-1m- > galaxy-tab-sales-early-predict-1-5m-by-end-of-year-20101203). If these > are counted in the activation numbers above (and the Tab has indeed > been blessed by Google with access to the Marketplace, so it should be > activated by Google), then this means the number of activated Android > phones has remained essentially flat since August. If not, then > Google activates actually 234,000 devices a day (17% growth since > August). > > Things that I think currently slow Android down: > > - Android usage in the U.S. is four times that of the world-wide > average (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/11/03/ > mac_market_share_slipping_worldwide). Microsoft knows that and will > spend a lot of of its $400 million marketing money > (http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2010/08/windows_phone_7_13...) > in the U.S., reducing the Android promotions from carriers. I think > that Android is a weaker brand than iPhone, so this will hurt Android > more than the iPhone. > > - No iPod Touch competitor. I always wondered why nobody has a > credible Android competitor to the iPod Touch. As the "entry drug to > the Apple world", it's the "iPhone minus contract minus some > features" (lower-quality screen, less RAM etc.). I think the iPod > Touch is such a tough nut to crack because a media player alone isn't > enough - you also need to sell content (music, TV shows, movies, > books, audio books) and manage it across devices (iTunes). I think > Apple can get away with iTunes be an ok app on the Mac and a bad app > on Windows because of a lack of competition. > > - Android not really ready for tablets. Only next Spring will Android > officially support tablets, probably introducing new UI elements (like > the iPad did - toolbars, split views like in mail etc.) and apps for > tablets only. We probably won't see much tablets beyond the Galaxy > Tab until then - and the iPad 2, rumored to launch in April > (http://www.engadget.com/2010/12/07/ipad-2-begins-shipping-from-foxconn-in-fe...). > And yes, you need 10 inch Android tablets because the 7 inch ones look > a whole lot smaller next to the iPad, and to many consumers, bigger is > better (especially for roughly the same price). > > - Apple still seems to be unable to build enough iPhones and iPads > (seehttp://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/07/apple_struggles_to_meet...). > Apple will fix this and sell more. > > - Apple rolled out the iPad in more countries this quarter (just > recently in Scandinavia), expanded its distribution in the U.S. to > channels like Walmart, Target and Best Buy and ended iPhone > exclusivity in some countries (such as here in Germany, where now > three of the four carriers offer the iPhone, except for just T- > Mobile). > > Here are things that _may_ slow down Android: > > - Rumors indicate an early 2011 launch for the iPhone on Verizon. > Even though AT&T was just rated the worst carrier in the U.S. by > Consumer Reports (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/12/06/ > consumer_reports_readers_rank_att_worst_carrier_in_us.html), they > continue to sign up more new subscribers than Verizon, thanks to the > iPhone (http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/22/technology/verizon_att/ > index.htm). This (plus the 14.1 million iPhones sold) supposedly > convinced Verizon to give in to Apple to keep the iPhone at least away > from Sprint and T-Mobile (http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/ > 10/12/06/ > verizon_may_pay_apple_to_keep_iphone_away_from_t_mobile_sprint.html). > As the biggest U.S. carrier and the biggest Android promoter, shifting > its marketing muscle over to the iPhone will probably hurt Android > sales significantly. With a CDMA iPhone also being sold in other high- > volume markets (such as India), I think the iPhone will getting a lot > closer to Android phone sales again. > > - The biggest indicator to me: In Apple's analyst call for its > September results, Steve Jobs personally showed up (which is rare) and > challenged Android to see who sold more phone (he acknowledged Android > did in the June quarter). Jobs is a master communicator - I don't > think he'd pick a fight he couldn't win. > > To sum it all up: Android remains a hot platform. But in the summer, > it looked like it will take the world by storm - now it looks Apple > has a comeback. Given that there's less fragmentation in the iOS > world and that Apple trained its iOS users to buy a lot of content and > apps, I think iOS still is the most attractive all-around mobile > platform for developers to target. However, I also think Android will > sell a lot of tablets starting next spring, but I don't see an iPod > Touch competitor arising soon. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
