Well, you said it. Specifically, you said "I think", and a gigantic set of 
(admittedly reasonably looking) numbers.

It's convoluted, no matter how reasonable all that looks, and somebody 
somewhere is going to end up having to pay for something or the MPEG-LA 
wouldn't be in business. My original notion still stands as far as I can 
tell: This fundamentally weakens the web because you can't just treat the 
videos like you'd treat, say, your HTML files or your images or your Vorbis 
audio files (legally speaking).

Possibly WebM, OggTheora, and in fact no other video format other than 
ridiculously inefficient ones could ever offer you that kind of legal bliss, 
because of submarine patents and all that, but I'm not entirely convinced 
this battle is already lost.

Kudos for finding all that. We do actually host some video, both in Theora 
and H.264 format, on projectlombok.org, and while I was fairly sure I was in 
the clear, I'm more sure now. You're probably right on WebM not being much 
loved in the content owners world, though presumably techies will like it, 
and just maybe they'll end up making this decision because they build the 
websites at the end of the day – Eh, maybe. More likely the lawyers will get 
involved and choose H.264 because they can pay the reasonable terms and feel 
(probably justifiably so) legally more in the clear that way.

NB: Does MPEG-LA offer patent indemnification?


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