Chris Campbell wrote:
>hypothesize that "classical wars are over".
I think they are, because...well, there's just no point to fighting
that way anymore. Our tech is sufficiently advanced that we do battle
now in courts and the marketplace, leaving armed conflicts
Gosh Chris, when you were disagreeing with me, I found only
insignificant differences and semantics. Now it looks like you are
trying to agree with me, but I find nearly nothing agreeable in your
post.
Bob Allen wrote: <11 posts later>
no matter how many reasons we can think
of for NOT going to war, ...
Chris Campbell wrote:
If globalization is the price for a world without large-scale conflict,
See, the thread went down the standard beat the dead horse to a pulp
and than beat it more and see if the horse come back to life so you
can beat it to death again path.
Did I say end to wars? Large-scale conflict? A safer more secure
world? Did I say globalization makes the world better*?
I just so _HAPPEN_ to believe the opposite to all these, but that's
BESIDE THE POINT.
* - yes I am a fan, not because it makes the world better, but because
I am lucky enough not to be on the side of the Losers. Screw them!
I said only end to wars with _PARITY_. I said only end to straight-up
battles like Braveheart/Saving Private Ryan/ROTK/LOTR/Gundam.
To tell the same message from a different angle:
Any nation/society/organization able to develop (not dependent on
import) high tech weapons and train (not hire) a professional army
from within is extremely unlikely to enter a war against an evenly
matched opponent.
Further, when there is disparity so one side thinks that victory is
inevitable, war can and do break out.
Further to further, infrequently but _spectacularly_, the superior
force is defeated by the inferior opponent.
Anyway, I am skipping most of the thread (sorry guys).
(nope, no
comment on the current U.S. administration here, nosiree...). The use
Why are there still people who seem to think Bush is an aberration? I
predict that within the next 5 terms (20 years) US voters will, by
power of their democratic ballots, put two or more in the White House
who will make Bush look like Mr. Nice Guy. For 2008... I'd say
there's already a 10% chance (I won't name names, and I don't even
believe a Dem prez is necessarily less ruthless than a Rep).
of force is sometimes warranted and advisable (the U.S. invasion of
Afghanistan after 9/11, for example), but apart from that...well,
Oh did I say anything about morality or justification of war? Did I
say the end of _inadvisable_ or irrational wars?
why? Why would we ever go to war with China? There's just no point.
Oh... if I weren't Chinese, I could come up with many huge reasons why
US should preemptively and comprehensively nuke both Russia and China
now. The more you wait the more you lose your advantage. In fact the
optimal window was 2002, likewise late 40s was a missed opportunity.
How does that jive with my original point? Well now is an opportunity
because there is currently no parity between US and RU/CN. And the
disparity is shrinking (quickly or slowly? that's up to debate), so
the more you wait the less likely it could happen.
Anyway... I should explain better my original point:
Why do nations with high tech weapons and professional armies shy away
from straight-up classical wars?
Well same old point: people don't enjoy dying. While that point is
universally true, only high-tech nations are practically "affected" by
fear of death. My argument is that there is a "universal" connection
between classical wars == heavy casualties; and high tech nations ==
aversion to casualties. Note particularly I make no moral or value
judgment. The same rule applies to USA, USSR, W. Europe, post-Deng
China, India and even Pakistan. Bush is getting hammered over a
measly 3000 deaths and similarly CCP won't survive a "disastrous
success" on a military victory over Taiwan. My estimate is if a
victory over Taiwan costs more than 10,000 PLA soldiers, CCP will
collapse. And next time you run into a Taiwanese espousing Taiwan
nationalism, ask him/her "why aren't you in the army defending your
own independence?"
The real shock to me personally, is that even Israel has become unable
to stomach 100+ casualties.
--
Dr. Core
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