I must disagree, Scott. No one of us hears enough "actual people" to know much of anything. We know our own circle of contacts, that's about it. It's a very big country. I warrant I don't know much about the actual people in Boulder, Colorado or Portland, Oregon. Heck, I don't even know much about the actual people in Frederick, Maryland, and that's just up the road from me a piece.
There are those among us, however, for whom this kind if knowledge is a specialty. Good politicians know these things, as do good political reporters. We get a glimpse into the level of this knowledge rarely on TV, but we do get it as results pour in of an election eve. Think of the guy talking about so many votes from this county, and then talking about how many votes are possibly left in that other county that hasn't yet reported. Then they say "Obama go so many in 2012, and Romney so many, so there might be as much as XX votes still available from there, and those people tend to vote blank party." That's knowledge. They can talk this stuff like we talk networking and cell technology here, off the top of their heads with an occasional check of some fact or other. The rest is turnout. Trump won because more of his people voted. That's the bottom line. Clinton underperformed Obama 2012 by 6 million votes, and underperformed Obama 2008 by 10 million votes. Meanwhile, Trump underperformed Romney by only a million (or so). Wisconsin went to Trump because too many Democrats in and around Milwaukee stayed home. Ditto for Philadelphia, even though the Philadelphia Democratic machine got the turnout far closer to 2012 levels than was the norm across the nation. So, what did polling get wrong? Levels of turnout appears to be the answer, boiled down to the fundamentals. And, that's always a guessing game in advance of the actual event. That's why sites like five thirty eight dot com provides confidence percentages. And, whether the confidence level is 70%, or 80%, there's still the balance to make up 100% because there is the builtin acknowledgement that "we could be wrong." Nor should we blame media, or liberal bias. The RNC also had it wrong, and the Trump people themselves were expecting to lose early in the evening. To my mind this election is an illustration of the old "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make the horse drink" adage. The best get out the vote organization still can't make people actually vote, though the Philadelphia Democratic machine does illustrate how a really good machine can get you close. Note that the Philadelphia machine is well organized all the way down to the ward and precinct level. Janina Scott Granados writes: > You knew the signs were out there, it was a Brexit type event all over again. > If you listened to the elite media and ruling class there was no way, if you > listened to the actual people you knew it was going to happen. > > Polling is dead. There’s a technological and believe it or not on topic > reason for it as well. Apple and Google have us all cutting the cord and > living with cell phones now. Pollsters can’t call cell phones. The fewer > hard lines there are left out there the fewer people to sample. > > > On Nov 10, 2016, at 8:45 AM, Donna Goodin <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Most people I know are still in a state of shock. I didn't think this > > would happen in a million years. Hilary wasn't a good candidate, but still > > ... > > Cheers, > > Donna > >> On Nov 10, 2016, at 3:27 AM, Simon Fogarty <[email protected]> wrote: > >> > >> Bummer dudes and dudettes! > >> > >> > >> > >> -----Original Message----- > >> From: [email protected] > >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Scott Granados > >> Sent: Wednesday, 9 November 2016 12:50 AM > >> To: MacVisionaries 'Chris Blouch' via <[email protected]> > >> Subject: Get out there and vote everyone! > >> > >> For our friends in the US, > >> Totally apolitical here and please please let’s keep it that way. Get > >> out there and vote today, do your civic duty regardless of your party / > >> candidate / beliefs just get out and have your voice heard if you haven’t > >> already. > >> Uber is offering a $20 credit for a trip to your polling place, Lyft > >> has a similar deal with up to $45 in credits, and Google also has the > >> means to arrange a ride for you and provide some credits to get to your > >> closest polls. the parties are offering rides and volunteer services as > >> well. > >> Also, make sure you take advantage of the deals available today to > >> voters. Keep that “I voted” sticker and Krispy Cream will give you a free > >> donut, McDonalds and Seven Eleven are giving free coffee, and many small > >> businesses are having election day promotions that include discounts or > >> out right freebies. > >> Remember that many service men and women have fought and died for your > >> right to vote so let’s not let them down and make sure we take advantage > >> of our most powerful expression of our freedom, our right to vote. Now > >> get out there and be safe everyone. > >> > >> -- > >> The following information is important for all members of the Mac > >> Visionaries list. > >> > >> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or > >> if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the > >> owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > >> > >> Your Mac Visionaries list moderator is Mark Taylor. You can reach mark > >> at: [email protected] and your owner is Cara > >> Quinn - you can reach Cara at [email protected] > >> > >> The archives for this list can be searched at: > >> http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > >> --- > >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > >> "MacVisionaries" group. > >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > >> email to [email protected]. > >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries. > >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > >> > >> -- > >> The following information is important for all members of the Mac > >> Visionaries list. > >> > >> If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or > >> if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the > >> owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > >> > >> Your Mac Visionaries list moderator is Mark Taylor. You can reach mark > >> at: [email protected] and your owner is Cara > >> Quinn - you can reach Cara at [email protected] > >> > >> The archives for this list can be searched at: > >> http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > >> --- > >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > >> "MacVisionaries" group. > >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > >> email to [email protected]. > >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries. > >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > > > -- > > The following information is important for all members of the Mac > > Visionaries list. > > > > If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or if > > you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the owners > > or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > > > > Your Mac Visionaries list moderator is Mark Taylor. You can reach mark at: > > [email protected] and your owner is Cara Quinn - > > you can reach Cara at [email protected] > > > > The archives for this list can be searched at: > > http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > > --- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > "MacVisionaries" group. > > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > > email to [email protected]. > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries. > > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > -- > The following information is important for all members of the Mac Visionaries > list. > > If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or if > you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the owners or > moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. > > Your Mac Visionaries list moderator is Mark Taylor. You can reach mark at: > [email protected] and your owner is Cara Quinn - you > can reach Cara at [email protected] > > The archives for this list can be searched at: > http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ > --- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "MacVisionaries" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Janina Sajka, Phone: +1.443.300.2200 sip:[email protected] Email: [email protected] Linux Foundation Fellow Executive Chair, Accessibility Workgroup: http://a11y.org The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), Web Accessibility Initiative (WAI) Chair, Accessible Platform Architectures http://www.w3.org/wai/apa -- The following information is important for all members of the Mac Visionaries list. If you have any questions or concerns about the running of this list, or if you feel that a member's post is inappropriate, please contact the owners or moderators directly rather than posting on the list itself. Your Mac Visionaries list moderator is Mark Taylor. You can reach mark at: [email protected] and your owner is Cara Quinn - you can reach Cara at [email protected] The archives for this list can be searched at: http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/ --- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MacVisionaries" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/macvisionaries. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
