Three months into a war between the US's most solid ally in the Middle East and a demonised mainly Muslim enemy, where the US population has been indoctrinated for decades, where most people acknowledge they don't even know what Zionism means, I would have thought tens of thousands would be impressive enough, and a great place to build from. It seems to me that an argument over how exaggerated the numbers are compared to previous demonstrations misses the point that large demonstrations are being mounted in the belly of the beast.
So yes, challenge the absurd exaggeration, but I don't see the point in this argument over numbers from previous events. Comradely, John On Fri, 19 Jan 2024, 12:59 Mark Baugher, <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > On Jan 18, 2024, at 1:38 PM, John Obrien <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Mark. > > > > Your stated faith in the National Park Service to provide truthful > numbers about the size of anti-government protests - > > seems amazing to me. > > "Stated faith"? I wrote "more reliable." And I wrote "National Park > Service" when I should have written "US Park Police" (USPP), which answers > to Congress and not the Executive branch; its numbers are distributed to > multiple news agencies, some of which are known to fact-check their > sources, and they have a published methodology. > https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RW3PvWAPvQbPr7d_Q-0HquIqcO6DDE2D/view?usp=sharing > provides an overview of counting crowds: > > "In the early 1970s, the USPP in Washington developed their own variant of > the Jacobs method. They needed systematic estimates of crowds to know how > many officers to send to rallies and to justify staff size in their annual > budget requests to Congress. From the outset the USPP was sensitive to > criticisms of its estimates, so they developed a method based upon > “independently verifiable facts, measurements, and photographs,” shifting > from SWAGs to the “gold standard.” When a demonstration involves less than > 1,000 people, two USPP officers independently walk through the gathering, > count the participants and give their counts to a commanding officer who > resolves any discrepancies exceeding 10 percent before announcing the > official estimate. For larger rallies, digital photographs are taken by > helicopter at different times during the event so the rally’s peak size > yields the estimate. The USPP knows the square footage of every green > space, sidewalk and monument in their jurisdiction. They are also aware > that density ranges from a high of 2.5 square feet per person at the front > and center of a stationary rally to a thinner 7.5 or 10 at the margins. > Nonetheless, they consistently use 5 square feet as an average, because it > simplifies calculations and is reliably validated by headcounts from aerial > photos (although this method tends to yield slight overcounts). > > "To estimate the size of marches, two or more officers positioned at > different locations along the route independently count the number of rows > of marchers passing their position. Other officers count the number of > marchers in each of 20 rows to arrive at the average row size, which is > then multiplied by the number of passing rows. Prior to the Congressional > gagorder, USPP resolved discrepancies by rounding their estimates up to > give the benefit of the doubt to the event organizers. Newspapers around > the country have used variations of the Jacobs method to deflate > exaggerated claims about the size of gatherings. New York Times reporters > used city maps and their own measurements of sidewalk widths to establish > the carrying capacity of Times Square and the ticker tape parade route from > Battery Park to City Hall. They reduced the traditional guesstimates of > millions gathering in those spaces to hundreds of thousands." > > So, yeah, I think this is "more reliable" than asking the organizers how > large their demonstration was. > > > I must assume you were not involved or have become aware of the Vietnam > Antiwar Movement > > experiences with the various U. S. government agencies - that were all > directed and from the White House - from reporting, to preventing. > > https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/27434 is about my antiwar > experiences. And I personally was harassed by two FBI agents in 1971 about > a month after the break-in and theft of FBI COINTELPRO files in Media, > Pennsylvania, across the river from the house of activists where I lived. > So, no, I was involved in the Vietnam Antiwar Movement and aware of > experiences with US government agencies. > > > > > Here are some examples - the U. S. government pressured every U. S. > insurance company from providing a needed bond to hold a rally at the > Washington DC Mall > > in hope that would prevent a mass march. We had to go to England and > get the Quaker led Lloyd's of London to agree to be the insurer and > providing the Bond. > > that attempted government sabotage was under the "former Quaker" U. S. > president Nixon, being fortunately outmaneuvered by the U. S. Antiwar > Movement by > > Quakers and international solidarity from another nation's antiwar > forces. > > > > I remembered the U. S. government ordered bus company and drivers to > leave their passengers behind on the night of October 21, 1967 under the > democrat LBJ > > I was among many who filled into the buses that the drivers had refused > to leave their passengers stranded that night (when many drivers did leave > - ordered by > > police AND Parks Department police. > > > > > > The massive November 15, 1969 protest in Washington DC (and in San > Francisco) would be eclipsed in size by the even larger April 24, 1971 > protest. > > I was on national staff for the April 24, 1971 and well remember how > many buses and cars were lined up on the highway for hours unable to > proceed south to Washington DC, > > BECAUSE of the huge numbers of people trying to join that protest. > > > > Perhaps you might consider the National Parks "Service" is a government > run agency - that first serves the rulers and whatever federal > administration is then in power. > > I explained above that the counting of the demonstrations in question was > done by the US Park Police under the administration of Congress, not the > federal administration. I wouldn't take their estimates, back when they > made estimates, as authoritative. But we should use multiple, independent > sources of information to get verifiable facts and not mimic Trump in > estimating crowd size. > > Mark > > > From: [email protected] <[email protected]> on behalf of Mark Baugher > <[email protected]> > > Sent: Thursday, January 18, 2024 6:45 AM > > To: [email protected] <[email protected]> > > Subject: Re: [marxmail] PSL ups the crowd-inflation factor > > > > > > > > > On Jan 17, 2024, at 5:23 PM, John Obrien <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > > > > Just want to correct your stating that the Vietnam Antiwar Mass > Marches never exceeded 300,000 - 400,000. > > > > Hi John, The National Park Service estimates are probably the most > reliable: > https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FList_of_rallies_and_protest_marches_in_Washington%2C_D.C&data=05%7C02%7C%7C0de9d0fe668b41e4862908dc18341769%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638411859210817847%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=8nIc9ySIUBsJz43okpuodR%2Fl8UtY3pNudkWNA4PY5Wg%3D&reserved=0. > I was surprised to see that they estimated the Fall 1969 Moratorium had > 600k participants. But I thought that April 24, 1971 was the largest > demonstration because that was the Kool Aid that the SWP was serving that > year. > > > > In Out Now, Fred Halstead estimated 750k for April 24th 1971 and said it > was the largest in US history (p. 543), but the April 30, 1971 Militant > Newspaper estimated that the 1969 National Moratorium mach in D.C. had > 800,000. > > > > So, take you pick: > https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsafe.duckduckgo.com%2F%3Fq%3Dapril%2B24%2B1971%2Bdemonstration%2Bpark%2Bservice%2Bcrowd%2Bsize%26kp%3D1%26atb%3Dv408-1%26ia%3Dweb&data=05%7C02%7C%7C0de9d0fe668b41e4862908dc18341769%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638411859210825616%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=nl6Hd2j6JEhZ%2BxO5qTSM45mVshm37CM2pu%2FCWQvvIUw%3D&reserved=0 > shows the range of estimates from newspapers for April 24th, 1971. A > research paper, > https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdrive.google.com%2Ffile%2Fd%2F1RW3PvWAPvQbPr7d_Q-0HquIqcO6DDE2D%2Fview%3Fusp%3Dsharing&data=05%7C02%7C%7C0de9d0fe668b41e4862908dc18341769%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C638411859210831148%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=RXC6rOxM83GAFAwuv5n7zh1FFMpvHgWd8Nz1WJcgp20%3D&reserved=0, > gives some background on estimating crowd sizes and has a table with yet > another set of numbers. > > > > Mark > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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