I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for over
the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program that
answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry.
I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its
very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are down
(way down). However that doesn't really mean that:
1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low end
crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy)
2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be a
huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than the
market can sustain)
3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love the
movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my
lifetime).
The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to specific
posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, people will point
to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect).
The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which
shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe the
statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars who were
in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the statement that
"Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and should be
discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All 1970s
posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be difficult (not
to mention difficult to code).
The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all
posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would be
easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) to a
NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict the sale
price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one in 1986!).
Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt that it works
across all decades.
The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so
that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be defined
as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer will pay), as
all of the venues charge differently for their services. For example if
eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) and if HA.com
sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) on eBay the
number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little sense to use
data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet spot! For
eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue here is that
the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the value will not be
correct.
Let me know what you find!
Evan
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bruce Hershenson" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain
Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed?
I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, and he
mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months.
Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly some
people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with their money.
Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are likely bringing
far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in years past.
I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY time
overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a poor
economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven to be an
excellent buying opportunity.
I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my auctions,
and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most savvy and
longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do a lot, but
are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree with me and are
trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed.
I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for $1
to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being far
more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in lesser
condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and they may be
getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items instead).
Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when
people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items sold
for reasonable prices".
What do YOU think?
Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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