Dang it, Rich, now I'm depressed too! Two year ago I lost around $10,000 on shipping and material costs I absorbed. I considered it "advertising". I recently completed my 2008 accounting, and I lost over $30,000!
Looks like my $9 base rate will soon be going to $10, and all that will do is lessen the loss. I feel your pain, bro! Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 3:04 PM, Richard Halegua Comic Art < [email protected]> wrote: > I'll be replying to another post in this string, but Bruce is right. the > costs of shipping have approximately doubled from A-Z > > cardboard is almost double what it was 2 years ago > plastic bags are almost double > plastic tape (the 2 inch tape) is more than double (in 2007 a 6 pack was > $5.99 , yesterday it was $14.99) > Avery labels are more than double > (for those wanting the math: 2 12x14 sheets of cardbaord = 56c, labels are > $40 per 200, 11x14 bags are $175 per 1000 shipped) > (so 1 package has approx 94 cents in supplies alone not including tape, > flyers. If I have to use my own box instead of a Priority box, add $1.50) > > and those are costs before we even ship it out > the biggest increases are (for me) shipping East of the Mississippi. as a > matter of fact, I need to create a new shipping schedule as it costs me way > less to ship to California and Arizona than it does to West Virginia > Non-US shipping went up last year and this year and and it is at least > double what it was in 2007 > > the bottom line? for Non-US customers, bidding has dropped precipitously > which reduces competition! > One new buyer in January in a "lobby card sets" auction bought 14 lbs of > lobby cards. > shipping to Australia was $90. the material cost $360 and many were > bargains as always, but the buyer - who fully understood that the shipping > costs were real - has never come back. > > Even worse, any package 4lbs or over going overseas must ship by Priority > Mail, which makes it incredibly costly > I sold a copy of the Reynold Brown book to a customer in the UK. the book > was $40. shipping of this heavy 4lb'er ws $35 > > shipping used to actually work in this formula: $7.00 fee to buyers > (domestic shipping). Cost used to leave maybe $1-2 that went toward paying > help to make packages. Now with my basic $9.00 cost, we only have a $1-2 > surplus for customers in a few western states near me in Nevada and when > shipping to NYC for instance, we lose money (actually, any state west of > Kansas is a loser for us) > > so now, the costs of the employee, tape, cardboard etc are fully borne by > my bottom line and when you sell stuff under $5-10, it is an economic loser > if the orders don't get above $40-50 or so > > I've been doing mail order business for 30+ years and honestly, the > climbing costs are absolutely taking money out of my personal income, which > should never be happening. > > but it's going to get worse! a new increase in already in the pipeline and > to make things even worse than that, in my case, the business post office > near the Strip (which is 1 block away) is slated to be closed in the massive > postal closures planned to save money and now we'll have to drive 15-20 > minutes just to drop off packages and to stand in line for Non-US shipping > there, and my advertised mailing address of the last 17 years is going to > disappear (my POBox is at that post office) > > so I'll have no choice but to raise my shipping rates to "get back to even" > and to pay for more gasoline and the 30 minutes or more for Anna to drive > there & back. > > if only the Starship Enterprise had left their transporter units in my > warehouse..... > > Rich > > > > At 09:07 AM 8/23/2009, Bruce Hershenson wrote: > > Great analysis, Evan. I completely agree that the "cost of selling" is an > important consideration in looking at results. If you consign an item and it > "sells" for $15, but you received 85 cents for it, then did you sell it for > $15, or for 85 cents? > > One factor not mentioned to this point is the *HUGE* postal price > increases the past few years, especially on international shipments. > > There are many items that auction for $2 because the shipping cost to the > person who loves it is $20 or $30 or $40, so they can't justify bidding $3, > even though they would gladly pay $10 for the item, but they can't because > of the cost of shipping to them. > > Bruce > > On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 10:50 AM, <[email protected] > wrote: > > I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for > over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program > that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its > very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are > down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: > > 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low > end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) > 2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be > a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than > the market can sustain) > 3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love > the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my > lifetime). > > The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to > specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, > people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). > > The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which > shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe > the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars > who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the > statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and > should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All > 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be > difficult (not to mention difficult to code). > > The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all > posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would > be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) > to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict > the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one > in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt > that it works across all decades. > > The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so > that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be > defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer > will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For > example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) > and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) > on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little > sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet > spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue > here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the > value will not be correct. > > Let me know what you find! > > Evan > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bruce Hershenson" < [email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain > Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, > and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. > > Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly > some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with > their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are > likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in > years past. > > I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY > time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a > poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven > to be an excellent buying opportunity. > > I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my > auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most > savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do > a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree > with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. > > I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for > $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being > far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in > lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and > they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items > instead). > > Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when > people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items > sold for reasonable prices". > > What do YOU think? > > Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at > www.filmfan.com___________________________________________________________________ > How to > UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: > [email protected] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF > MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. > > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com > ___________________________________________________________________ > How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List > Send a message addressed to: [email protected] > In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L > The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___________________________________________________________________ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: [email protected] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
