Great analysis, Evan. I completely agree that the "cost of selling" is an important consideration in looking at results. If you consign an item and it "sells" for $15, but you received 85 cents for it, then did you sell it for $15, or for 85 cents?
One factor not mentioned to this point is the *HUGE* postal price increases the past few years, especially on international shipments. There are many items that auction for $2 because the shipping cost to the person who loves it is $20 or $30 or $40, so they can't justify bidding $3, even though they would gladly pay $10 for the item, but they can't because of the cost of shipping to them. Bruce On Sun, Aug 23, 2009 at 10:50 AM, <[email protected]> wrote: > > I think that if anyone had a database of posters and what they sold for > over the last 15 years, someone could write some sort of analysis program > that answered this question! Ok, so that was a smart ass answer. Sorry. > > I use your sales results database all of the time -- it kicks ass. And its > very obvious that the posters that I personally have been looking at are > down (way down). However that doesn't really mean that: > > 1) all posters in a particular price range are down (it may be just low > end crappy 1940s and 1950s posters I tend to buy) > 2) the prices are depressed because of the economy (as there seems to be > a huge supply of posters being auctioned every week, perhaps way more than > the market can sustain) > 3) the pieces which are currently down are ever coming back up (I love > the movie "Father Goose", but I don't expect it to sell for $100 again in my > lifetime). > > The problem with using anecdotal evidence is that people only point to > specific posters which support their claim. And, if you make a claim, > people will point to some outlier which contridicts (the Librianna effect). > > The first challenge is to find a meaningful partitioning of the data which > shows some meaningful demonstratable trend. For example, I would believe > the statement "Non spectacular 1950s 1-sheets for A movies with top stars > who were in their primes in the 1940s are down 50%". I would believe the > statement that "Ugly posters from bad movies in the 1970s are worthless and > should be discarded". However, I would not believe the statuement that "All > 1970s posters are down 25%". Finding such a partition would have to be > difficult (not to mention difficult to code). > > The second challenge is to find a way to analyze so little data. If all > posters were in the same condition, and offered regularly the analysis would > be easy. However, how do you compare sales of a G- poster (with free book) > to a NM copy? I don't believe that there is a standard formula to predict > the sale price based on condition (although Jon Warren thought there was one > in 1986!). Even if there was some magic formula (e.g., VG = 75% NM), I doubt > that it works across all decades. > > The third challenge is to agree on some reasonable definition of 'Value' so > that we can compare results across different venues. Value has to be > defined as what the seller will receive for the peice (not what the buyer > will pay), as all of the venues charge differently for their services. For > example if eMovieposter sells a poster for $15 (the seller get 40% or $6) > and if HA.com sells it for $15 (a $1 bid plus $14 BP, the seller get $0.85) > on eBay the number is somewhere in the middle. As a result, it makes little > sense to use data from one of these sites which is outside that sites sweet > spot! For eMovieposter its atlesast $50, for HA its at least $75. The issue > here is that the overhead dominates the cost of the transaction and the > value will not be correct. > > Let me know what you find! > > Evan > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Bruce Hershenson" <[email protected]> > To: [email protected] > Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 7:44:24 AM GMT -07:00 US/Canada Mountain > Subject: [MOPO] Are poster prices depressed? > > > I was talking to one of my consignors on the phone a couple of days ago, > and he mentioned that he thought many prices were down in recent months. > > Of course, much of this can be attributed to the overall economy. Clearly > some people are short on money, and others are just being cautious with > their money. Also eBay has made such a mess of their listings that they are > likely bringing far fewer new collectors into the hobby than they did in > years past. > > I have been buying and selling collectibles for 44 years now, and EVERY > time overall prices have been depressed (due to external reasons, like a > poor economy, or a massive collection coming on the market), it has proven > to be an excellent buying opportunity. > > I have been looking at WHO is buying the better quality items in my > auctions, and who are the underbidders, and it seems like a lot of the most > savvy and longest time collectors are doing a lot of buying (or trying to do > a lot, but are getting outbid), and that would seem to say that they agree > with me and are trying to find bargains while prices are somewhat depressed. > > I also notice that the prices of much lesser items (those that auction for > $1 to $20) are mostly extremely depressed. I attribute this to people being > far more selective in what they buy, choosing to pass up items that are in > lesser condition or of low desireability, even if they are dirt cheap (and > they may be getting to spend the money they would have spent on better items > instead). > > Anyway, I am betting that one more time this will prove to be a time when > people look back and think "Why didn't I buy more when many decent items > sold for reasonable prices". > > What do YOU think? > > Bruce Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at > www.filmfan.com___________________________________________________________________ > How to > UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: > [email protected] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF > MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content. > > Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com ___________________________________________________________________ How to UNSUBSCRIBE from the MoPo Mailing List Send a message addressed to: [email protected] In the BODY of your message type: SIGNOFF MOPO-L The author of this message is solely responsible for its content.
