This idea that "unemployment is a lagging indicator" is the biggest (and
longest-running) prevarication of all the myriad lies being pushed by
the government with the cheer-leading assistance of the "news" media.
Since consumers drive sales (at any level you care to name), if there
are more and more consumers out of work and, more important, unable to
find new work, then sales at all levels go down and stay down. The
economy simply cannot recover if real average-consumer sales don't at
least start creeping up. Any other "hopeful indicators" the supposed
experts -- you know them, all those geniuses who missed the obvious
signs of the impending real estate and banking collapse two years ago --
well, those "hopeful signs" just so much wishful thinking -- and the
masking effect of those few who still have money to burn picking up
recession-priced bargains.
In other words, a few people/companies going around snapping up
foreclosed or near-foreclosure properties/businesses/inventories at 40
cents on the dollar is not really an "increase in sales" and hardly what
any sensible person would call a "hopeful sign".
At the very least, the widespread layoffs have to stop and then a few
companies/projects have to start hiring *before* you can even think
about the economy *really* starting to recover. We may begin to see some
of that by the end of this year as the $500 billion unfunded dollars
they have been printing up and dumping into infrastructure projects all
across the nation really starts cranking up this summer once the snows melt.
But that's why we're now seeing all this propaganda (and the $15 billion
jobs package they are trying to pass). If you can convince employers
that "the economy is recovering" you can get them to step 1): stop
firing any more people and maybe even step 2): get them to hire a couple
of people at much reduced wages than they would have had to pay those
people 4 years ago.
No real point in us debating this here, however, since it is being
debated/discussed/screamed about just about everywhere else but here.
-- JR
[email protected] wrote:
Bruce...I totally agree.
I see people unemployed, losing their homes, going bankrupt, etc.
But then again..employment is a lagging indicator.
The businesses that caused and felt the pain are the first to heal.
Then the common folk.
I dunno either.
On Mar 5, 2010, at 4:25 PM, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
This has nothing to do with movie posters, but I was wondering if any of you
are wondering (as I am) if the government may be lying to us. I mean, in
totalitarian countries, the governments used to endlessly broadcast good news,
and record harvests, and increased production, in the hopes that people would
swallow it.
Lately, the government has been telling us that economic conditions are getting better,
and that the recovery is under way, and I am thinking, "Who I am to believe, the
government, or my own lying eyes?".
What say you?
Bruce
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