it's not a matter of bright or dark side.. it's looking at reality &
determining what the results should be
I wish I had been wrong.
here's a quote from an email I sent someone in 2004:
"James, unfortunately I fear that not only will housing prices fall,
but it's entirely possible that when it happens, the economy could
possibly go with it........"
thankfully, I remember the conversations with my friend, so I could
easily find the emails we chatted about (yes I archive all my emails,
from 1994-onward).
any history fan (like I am) should have been able to put it together,
as long as you can separate your emotions from the details. Emotion
however, and the simple fact that most people who think they "know
everything" even though they don't read news or history books, aren't
suited to investing of any kind... well , they just don't listen to
anyone.. and so, we have lost money & a tanked economy because don't
forget - the consumers are just as guilty as the trumpeteers.
At 04:10 PM 4/3/2010, Glenn Taranto wrote:
Gotta love Rich... Always looking on the bright side!
GT :>)
----- Original Message -----
From: <mailto:[email protected]>Richard Halegua Comic Art
To: <mailto:[email protected]>[email protected]
Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2010 2:05 PM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking article: Ten
Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
it does indeed Bruce and that's how I knew the housing bubble was
gonna to come as early as 2003 (we did have one of the hottest
markets). I rented a house in 2000. It was brand new and the houses
on either side were still building
the owner bought it for $120k.
within a year he offered it to me at $155k. I said no thanks, and he
sold it. I continued renting
within a year it sold again for $195k
then another year $235k. then it sold twice more until it was
$295,000 in 2003. That's when I moved out, even though my rent never
changed in all that time (the new manager was an a$$hole).
i was up in the neighborhood last year & drove by. It was foreclosed.
I checked online & it was for sale at $107k.. less than when it was new!!!
all along I told my friends this couldn't be real, and a correction
was coming.. Of course, like the comics hobby - no one believed me then.
I was talking to a friend I ran into yesterday. she lost $380k on 3
houses she invested in.. it was a total rout to her.
but hey.. I hadn't seen her in a while.. and we're having dinner
next week.. so the real estate bubble did get me something after all... LOL
02:55 PM 4/3/2010, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
Sounds like there are parallels to the real estate bubble of a few years ago.
Or the Greater Fool theory. Once a few of the "big players" decide
to back off, prices can go down just as quick as they go up.
If the people buying these items have a true love of them, that's a
healthy hobby. But when the "investor types" buy because they think
they are going to sell at a huge profit in a few years, it's a
recipe for disaster.
Time will tell.
Bruce
On Sat, Apr 3, 2010 at 4:13 PM, Richard Halegua Comic Art
<<mailto:[email protected]>[email protected]> wrote:
no, it's never been really soft and Heritage didn't do anything to
change the field's direction
but it's a classic bubble hobby.. they keep thinking it only goes
up-up-up and if you read the comic boards, that is the general
sentiment. Anyone who challenges that thought is roundly admonished
by the complete majority of the dealers & collectors - even though
the number of comic stores has decreased by 75% (or more) during
the last 15 years and publishers are printing less comics.
As a matter of fact, I had dinner with a longtime friend who used
to be one of the top five comic distributors and we discussed it.
there may be less than 15% of the number of comic stores there were
in 1990, but the only company that could show the proof is Diamond
and they won't tell. As a matter of fact, they keep trumpeting the hobby.
Sean and I have been involved in that hobby for 45+ years (in my
case. 40+ as a dealer) and 25+ (in Sean's case)
seeing as both of us have more faith in movie posters - I think
that says alot about the hobby and Bruce as well was a big person
in the hobby in the 70s. Moreover, when you go to comic
conventions, there is almost nobody under 35 except longtime
dealers and a very tiny % of collectors. By and large, the great
population of older collectors has disappeared as prices have
increased, and so - the likelihood of golden age books from
third-world publishers becoming non-sought-after issues is
increasing. Surprisingly, the large part of the hobby dismisses
this as well, which is proof that the hobby is populated by the
perfect people - those who wear blinders where money is concerned..
Rich
At 01:57 PM 4/3/2010, Kevin Conway wrote:
I am no comic book expert, but was once a moderate
collector. Wasn't the comic book market quite soft until Heritage
entered the market in a "big way" and heavily promoted the comic
book industry about 7-10 years ago ??
-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Halegua Comic Art
Sent: Apr 3, 2010 3:07 PM
To: <mailto:[email protected]>[email protected]
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking article: Ten
Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
it's a fantastic article that reports things we as longtime
dealers already know and that comic book collectors need to examine
in comics right now, there is much talk about Action comics #1 CGC
8.0 grade sold for $1mil, then Heritage sold Detective #27 8.0 for
$1,075,000 and just this week Action #1 8.5 sold for $1.5mil.
Because comic collectors seem (to me) purposely ignorant that a
reckoning is coming to the greater part of the hobby, they all
point to these sales & say "the comics hobby is super-healthy..
prices will never go down". Prices in comics don't reflect
decreases because both dealers and the publishers of the price
guide are in bed together on the one hand, and they have a
stranglehold on the hobby off the other hand. The fans are also
complicit in this sham as they 1) go for it hook-line-and sinker &
2) they choose to ignore the obvious signals.
Action Comics #1 will always sell for big bucks. It is after all
the single most important comic book there is. It has interest
outside the comic collecting hobby and most copies over time will
find their way into museums where they will remain on permanent
display. Action comics #2, 102, or 502.... sorry... down the road,
these books will be collected by very few as the entire comics
hobby will continue to deflate over many long years until almost
no-one collects them, with the exception of the top items like
Action #1, Spiderman #1 and the like.
Movie posters will no doubt follow them in great part (especially
as posters themselves stop being printed in favor of digital displays).
The only difference in posters is that, unlike a comic book, a
movie poster is likened to an artwork, can be framed and displayed
in a home, while it is unlikely that Coo-Coo Comics #1 will ever
get displayed for company to view when they come over for dinner
that doesn't mean that all posters will be collected.. Sadly, the
collecting of posters to the great majority will focus on the top
titles, the top stars and the big hits.. Much of the rest will just fade away.
Rich
At 08:28 AM 4/3/2010, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
Ten Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
by Harry Rinker (03/16/10).
<http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/ten-signposts-identify-endangered-collecting-categories?utm_source=WorthPoint+Insider+List&utm_campaign=cf94b34d78-insider-7&utm_medium=email&mc_cid=cf94b34d78&mc_eid=9c7686e1e6>http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/ten-signposts-identify-endangered-collecting-categories?utm_source=WorthPoint+Insider+List&utm_campaign=cf94b34d78-insider-7&utm_medium=email&mc_cid=cf94b34d78&mc_eid=9c7686e1e6
Does it apply to movie posters? Comic Books?
Bruce
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Kevin Conway
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www.CVTreasures.com
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