Thanks, Brude... You are correct, sir!
GT
----- Original Message -----
From: Brude
To: [email protected]
Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2010 2:24 PM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking article: Ten Signposts to
Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
I think Glenn was referring to your dinner date, you scoundrel.
Ted
--- On Sat, 4/3/10, Richard Halegua Comic Art <[email protected]>
wrote:
From: Richard Halegua Comic Art <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking article: Ten
Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
To: [email protected]
Date: Saturday, April 3, 2010, 6:20 PM
it's not a matter of bright or dark side.. it's looking at reality &
determining what the results should be
I wish I had been wrong.
here's a quote from an email I sent someone in 2004:
"James, unfortunately I fear that not only will housing prices fall,
but it's entirely possible that when it happens, the economy could possibly go
with it........"
thankfully, I remember the conversations with my friend, so I could
easily find the emails we chatted about (yes I archive all my emails, from
1994-onward).
any history fan (like I am) should have been able to put it together,
as long as you can separate your emotions from the details. Emotion however,
and the simple fact that most people who think they "know everything" even
though they don't read news or history books, aren't suited to investing of any
kind... well , they just don't listen to anyone.. and so, we have lost money &
a tanked economy because don't forget - the consumers are just as guilty as the
trumpeteers.
At 04:10 PM 4/3/2010, Glenn Taranto wrote:
Gotta love Rich... Always looking on the bright side!
GT :>)
----- Original Message -----
From: Richard Halegua Comic Art
To: [email protected]
Sent: Saturday, April 03, 2010 2:05 PM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking article: Ten
Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
it does indeed Bruce and that's how I knew the housing bubble was
gonna to come as early as 2003 (we did have one of the hottest markets). I
rented a house in 2000. It was brand new and the houses on either side were
still building
the owner bought it for $120k.
within a year he offered it to me at $155k. I said no thanks, and
he sold it. I continued renting
within a year it sold again for $195k
then another year $235k. then it sold twice more until it was
$295,000 in 2003. That's when I moved out, even though my rent never changed in
all that time (the new manager was an a$$hole).
i was up in the neighborhood last year & drove by. It was
foreclosed.
I checked online & it was for sale at $107k.. less than when it
was new!!!
all along I told my friends this couldn't be real, and a
correction was coming.. Of course, like the comics hobby - no one believed me
then.
I was talking to a friend I ran into yesterday. she lost $380k on
3 houses she invested in.. it was a total rout to her.
but hey.. I hadn't seen her in a while.. and we're having dinner
next week.. so the real estate bubble did get me something after all... LOL
02:55 PM 4/3/2010, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
Sounds like there are parallels to the real estate bubble of a
few years ago.
Or the Greater Fool theory. Once a few of the "big players"
decide to back off, prices can go down just as quick as they go up.
If the people buying these items have a true love of them,
that's a healthy hobby. But when the "investor types" buy because they think
they are going to sell at a huge profit in a few years, it's a recipe for
disaster.
Time will tell.
Bruce
On Sat, Apr 3, 2010 at 4:13 PM, Richard Halegua Comic Art
<[email protected]> wrote:
no, it's never been really soft and Heritage didn't do
anything to change the field's direction
but it's a classic bubble hobby.. they keep thinking it only
goes up-up-up and if you read the comic boards, that is the general sentiment.
Anyone who challenges that thought is roundly admonished by the complete
majority of the dealers & collectors - even though the number of comic stores
has decreased by 75% (or more) during the last 15 years and publishers are
printing less comics.
As a matter of fact, I had dinner with a longtime friend who
used to be one of the top five comic distributors and we discussed it. there
may be less than 15% of the number of comic stores there were in 1990, but the
only company that could show the proof is Diamond and they won't tell. As a
matter of fact, they keep trumpeting the hobby.
Sean and I have been involved in that hobby for 45+ years (in
my case. 40+ as a dealer) and 25+ (in Sean's case)
seeing as both of us have more faith in movie posters - I
think that says alot about the hobby and Bruce as well was a big person in the
hobby in the 70s. Moreover, when you go to comic conventions, there is almost
nobody under 35 except longtime dealers and a very tiny % of collectors. By and
large, the great population of older collectors has disappeared as prices have
increased, and so - the likelihood of golden age books from third-world
publishers becoming non-sought-after issues is increasing. Surprisingly, the
large part of the hobby dismisses this as well, which is proof that the hobby
is populated by the perfect people - those who wear blinders where money is
concerned..
Rich
At 01:57 PM 4/3/2010, Kevin Conway wrote:
I am no comic book expert, but was once a moderate
collector. Wasn't the comic book market quite soft until Heritage entered the
market in a "big way" and heavily promoted the comic book industry about 7-10
years ago ??
-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Halegua Comic Art
Sent: Apr 3, 2010 3:07 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [MOPO] An excellent thought provoking
article: Ten Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting Categories
it's a fantastic article that reports things we as
longtime dealers already know and that comic book collectors need to examine
in comics right now, there is much talk about Action
comics #1 CGC 8.0 grade sold for $1mil, then Heritage sold Detective #27 8.0
for $1,075,000 and just this week Action #1 8.5 sold for $1.5mil. Because comic
collectors seem (to me) purposely ignorant that a reckoning is coming to the
greater part of the hobby, they all point to these sales & say "the comics
hobby is super-healthy.. prices will never go down". Prices in comics don't
reflect decreases because both dealers and the publishers of the price guide
are in bed together on the one hand, and they have a stranglehold on the hobby
off the other hand. The fans are also complicit in this sham as they 1) go for
it hook-line-and sinker & 2) they choose to ignore the obvious signals.
Action Comics #1 will always sell for big bucks. It is
after all the single most important comic book there is. It has interest
outside the comic collecting hobby and most copies over time will find their
way into museums where they will remain on permanent display. Action comics #2,
102, or 502.... sorry... down the road, these books will be collected by very
few as the entire comics hobby will continue to deflate over many long years
until almost no-one collects them, with the exception of the top items like
Action #1, Spiderman #1 and the like.
Movie posters will no doubt follow them in great part
(especially as posters themselves stop being printed in favor of digital
displays).
The only difference in posters is that, unlike a comic
book, a movie poster is likened to an artwork, can be framed and displayed in a
home, while it is unlikely that Coo-Coo Comics #1 will ever get displayed for
company to view when they come over for dinner
that doesn't mean that all posters will be collected..
Sadly, the collecting of posters to the great majority will focus on the top
titles, the top stars and the big hits.. Much of the rest will just fade away.
Rich
At 08:28 AM 4/3/2010, Bruce Hershenson wrote:
Ten Signposts to Identify Endangered Collecting
Categories
by Harry Rinker (03/16/10).
http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/ten-signposts-identify-endangered-collecting-categories?utm_source=WorthPoint+Insider+List&utm_campaign=cf94b34d78-insider-7&utm_medium=email&mc_cid=cf94b34d78&mc_eid=9c7686e1e6
Does it apply to movie posters? Comic Books?
Bruce
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