I learned some time back that Grey had met with CGC to "train" their comic
book graders on grading movie material, so I knew this was coming. I suppose
we all knew this would rear its ugly head eventually. I am encouraged by the
feedback I am hearing on MOPO with regards to the balloon that Heritage has
floated with the upcoming auction. The correct and salient questions are
being asked and, not surprisingly, are not being answered to anyone's
satisfaction. Bruce has the firmest grasp of the reality of what CGC would
bring to the table, which is basically nothing. Nothing positive at least.
Since Ron Moore has evidently become the default spokesperson for Heritage,
let me address his post, non sequiturs and all:
Ron starts by suggesting that given the Universal Haggard debacle, many
people on MOPO are in favor of a third party grading/authentication entity.
I haven't spoken with even one collector or dealer who is in favor of this
nor have nearly any of the posts indicated this. The vast majority of
collectors can't even afford Universal paper.
In response to Bruce's statement regarding the influx on investors who have
"overrun other hobbies", Ron states:
"Sorry, but I've never understood this argument. Are you saying that
because someone has money (or has access to more disposable income than you)
that they couldn't possibly love the film as much as you do? Therefore, if
they buy a lobby and are willing to pay more than you, then they are
investors and not collectors? I truly don't understand the logic here at
all. To me, that's completely irrational. Here's another take on the same
argument (that's also just as irrational)- MAYBE they are more of a fan than
you and are willing to prove it by shelling out more money to buy the item
than you're willing to pay. Therefore you couldn't possibly love the
lobby/film more than the "investor". - Hmmm. that doesn't make much sense
either. Maybe there's another reason people are willing to pay more for
slabbed items."
No, that is not what Bruce is saying. He is merely pointing out a reality
that has overwhelming precedent from other hobbies. Comic book collecting,
for example, is no longer as much of a hobby as it is an investment vehicle.
More on that later.
In answer to Bruce's question #2, Ron states with respect to CGC: "this is
EXACTLY what we need". He goes on to make the following statements: "I can
only hope that the people at CGC have enough experience in spotting fake
paper collectibles". "They've been trained to look for problems so they will
hopefully spot problems". "As long as the information is available to CGC
about reissues, etc., I'm sure they will get it right and certainly as well
as any other dealer. This is a learning curve that any collector or dealer
goes through when entering a new hobby"(emphasis all mine).
Well. That is certainly a compelling and encouraging argument. They have had
a crash course in grading movie paper and are therefore as qualified as any
dealer in the world at grading and he is sure they will get it right.
Hopefully, that is.
In response to Bruce's succinct comment regarding whether a paid employee
who has looked at a piece for a minute is more trustworthy than a dealer
with 20-30 years of experience, Ron responds with:
"I certainly hope this isn't a lack of faith in long-standing dealers". Huh?
He continues: "However. just because someone's been dealing for 20 to 30
years (myself included here) doesn't make them "in-line" with the current
grading standards. that don't actually exist." Say what Ron?
Which leads me to what should be the headline of Ron's post and the crux of
the matter: A new grading standard to be determined by CGC. CGC re-wrote the
rules of grading comic books and it is painfully obvious that they intend to
do the same with movie paper. And if they follow suit, the grading will be
based on their own set of furtive values. Inconsistent and unreliable, with
ambiguous explanations of how the grade was determined. Plan on your near
mint, gorgeous lobby card that has a small bit of brown tape on the reverse
coming back a 5.0.
The other cheerleader for this singularly bad idea stated:
"The point of slabbing is exactly as Bruce writes - its designed to assure
people new to the hobby that the cards are real and graded properly."
No, that's not what Bruce said and it is disingenuous and naive to claim
that this is the purpose of slabbing.
"These new collectors don't know Bruce or Rich, don't know how to grade
lobby cards and don't know who to trust. But they still are interested in
collecting and investing. CGC has been around long enough in enough
different hobbies to maintain credibility."
Uh huh.
By the way, the cost involved in slabbing is not only the encapsulation, but
is based on a multi-tiered system, and with regards to the more expensive
material, the cost is calculated according to what CGC determines the
material is worth after grading. This is what's known in the real world as
conflict of interest. I will address actual costs shortly.
"These new collectors might be speculators and might drive up prices to
amazing levels - but I am having a hard time thinking that's a bad thing. So
slabbing will bring in more customers, some of who might actually become
real collectors, drive up prices on the better material and make the dealers
more money and the worth of collections higher. What's the objection?
If it works out like it did in comics - it actually DROPPED the prices of
lesser material. Only the very top pieces maintained the huge "overguide"
prices."
Excuse me for a second while I get a BC powder..Ok I'm back.
So.slabbing will increase the worth of collections and at the same time
drive down the value of lesser material. Well that's great if your
collection consists of nothing but high grade, high end material(evidently,
high grade, high-end material is the nucleus of all collections).
The majority of comments being made by detractors of this plan(that being
pretty much everyone)have two recurring themes: the cost and hassle of
slabbing, and the net effect on the hobby. These are practical questions and
are also born out of a love and concern for the hobby. The above quotes
demonstrate the real motivation behind this effort to bring a third party
grading system into play: To drive prices. Plain and simple.
This is a business decision by Heritage to interface with CGC and it is
certainly their right to do so. It may in fact be a smart business move on
their part. But let's not fool ourselves or be fooled. This is not an
altruistic effort to help the hobby and new collectors who might(god
forbid)make mistakes initially while paying their dues learning the
hobby/market as we all have. Learning first hand, making mistakes, gaining
knowledge through experience is part of the process, the journey, as they
say.
Make no mistake, this is not for the benefit of the collector or the good of
the hobby(depending on your definition of good). This will benefit CGC and a
few interested parties. And yes, if successfully implemented, high end
material will sky-rocket and as Bruce has correctly pointed out, become the
intrinsic realm of investors, not collectors.
With the constant barrage of the same titles being offered over and over and
over(and over) every week it has become painfully obvious how plentiful much
of the material is. The net effect of this unsustainable model is that the
market is in a state of decline. So when scarcity is no longer in play,
condition will rule the day. And that is the point of this exercise: To
abate the negative effects of ceaselessly flooding the market with material
by taking the market in a new direction and putting emphasis on condition.
It has been suggested that all these pesky, gainsaying, uninformed,
contrarian philistines misunderstand this new and requisite need for a third
party grading system and are resistant to change. Their concerns are well
founded, however. I called CGC and spoke with them just now. Here is the way
the tiered fee structure works at CGC for lobby cards:
A card with a maximum value of 300.00 is labeled "Economy" and costs $10
with a 40 business day turnaround
A card with a maximum value of 1000.00 is labeled "Standard" and costs $20
with a 15 business day turnaround.
A card with a maximum value of 5000.00 is labeled "Express" and costs $40
with a 5 business day turnaround.
A card that is valued at more than 5000.00 is labeled "Walk through" and
costs 1% of fair market value.
"Fair market value" by the way is ultimately determined by CGC. For example,
if I send a card in that I think is worth 2000.00 and CGC looks at it and
says "no, this will grade at such and such and is worth 8000.00", my cost on
that card just went from $40.00 to 80.00 if I decide to proceed(in theory
and maybe practice, they contact you before proceeding). If they determine
it is worth $5,500.00, it's still $80 because for anything valued greater
than $5000.00, there is an $80 minimum. On the upside there is a $1000.00
maximum charge per card.
How sweet is that!
At the end of the day, the most persuasive argument presented so far in
favor of slabbing is that I could eat Fruit Loops and splash milk while
enjoying my Lobbies.
-Peter
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