> [Krimel]
> we are accustomed to thinking of chains of probability.  what we 
> experience is a nest of interwoven chains

[Craig]
But probabilities are just comparisons between two or more events; they
don't affect what happens.  If I roll a die, there is a 1/6
chance/probability that it will come up a 3.  But what actually comes up,
depends on the initial position of the die & its trajectory (among other
things).  Probability plays no role.

[Krimel]
Which among those "other things" does the roll depend on? 

The amount wagered on the roll?
The amount of sweat on your palm? 
The oil on your fingers? 
The amount of sugar in your blood? 
Malformations in the dice?
The texture of the surface you are rolling on?
The temperature?
The humidity?
The barometric pressure?
The movement of air in the room?
The gravitational force where you are?
The position of the moon offsetting that force?

The number of "other things" fast approaches infinity and the causal chains
that link them together to produce your roll of the dice touch every
particle in the universe. In this web of causality it is all determined but
indeterminable until it actually happens. And some of these "other things"
are even quantum effects that can not even in principle be determined before
hand. 

If it were all as ruggedly deterministic as you imagine, throwing dice would
not be considered "gambling".



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