I wrote, re: empty nesters fueling the condo boom - > Also, here's a little tidbit from local research firm DSU: nine of the 10 > fastest-growing demographic groups in America are people without kids. So > kidlessness is a growth industry.
Then Jeanne wrote: > It's about a twenty year growth industry as baby boomers pass through the > empty nester age cohort - kidless AND (relatively) wealthy as baby boomers > will be in their peak earning years. It's phenomenal to watch the condo > industry trying to capture this booming market. Once it declines, we might > be seeing these units converted to assisted living to capture the aging baby > boomer market. A variation of this is a fascinating phenomenon is called the Naturally Occurring Retirement Communitiy. NORCs are big in New York City, where rent control keeps people in their apartments for decades, and they end up aging together. But the phenomenon has happened elsewhere, and will almost certainly happen here. > By the 2020s, baby boomleters (kids of baby boomers) will be having kids and > likely buying homes in big numbers (though not as big as in their parents' > generation), filling in some (but not likely all) those homes built for > their parents' generation. I think this is true, but there are a couple of mega-trends that still bode well for Downtown Minneapolis. One is that we simply don't have the political stomach to solve our transportation problems, which will push people to live closer to their jobs. Downtown has 160,000 jobs but only 30,000 workers - tons of growth potential there. (I should also tip my cap to the Peak Oil folks, with some local analysis. When scarcity drives up prices, places with density - Minneapolis and Downtown - should benefit, relatively. The 'burbs are inherently too sparse to shuck higher fuel expenses. Also, there was a New Yorker piece a few months back about how high-rise housing, recently typical Downtown, is inherently more resource-efficient than new home construction. If you have to "grow," up and dense is better than flat and out.) The other mega-trend is that the countryside will continue to depopulate. Absent short-term Peak Oil effects, people will flock to the metro areas despite the shift in any demographic group. (The Met Council predicts 1 million new people in the metro area by 2020 or 2030; can't remember which.) While most will go to the 'burbs, Minneapolis need only capture a few percent of that migration to show real growth. 6:20 a.m. and I'm out of posts already! Talk about being vulnerable to attack! I have to start waking up later... David Brauer Kingfield REMINDERS: 1. Be civil! Please read the NEW RULES at http://www.e-democracy.org/rules. If you think a member is in violation, contact the list manager at [EMAIL PROTECTED] before continuing it on the list. 2. Don't feed the troll! Ignore obvious flame-bait. For state and national discussions see: http://e-democracy.org/discuss.html For external forums, see: http://e-democracy.org/mninteract ________________________________ Minneapolis Issues Forum - A Civil City-focused Civic Discussion - Mn E-Democracy Post messages to: mailto:[email protected] Subscribe, Un-subscribe, etc. at: http://e-democracy.org/mpls
