Is this too early for a big NF in the mid-atlantic region?

Are these the main factors?
1) Date during migration season (higher numbers during peak)
2) What has happened during previous nights - i.e. if the wind was
blowing strongly in the wrong direction or
3) Wind speed and direction

It should have been backed up recently with all the rain and northern
winds.  Wind is out of the WSW tonight. But, is it still to early for
a big spring NFC?

Andrew Albright
Lafayette Hill, PA

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