Andrew- I'm running a multiple regression right now on weather data related to migration intensity and several of the variables you mentioned are included. Something I'm meaning to do is to include time-since-last migration event but have yet to create the variable. I'll let the list know when I've got something conclusive.
Cheers David ____________________________________________________ David A. La Puma Villas, NJ Websites: http://www.woodcreeper.com http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com Photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper On Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 9:31 PM, David La Puma <[email protected]>wrote: > ...I really have to retrain myself to check this list now that migration is > back in action! > > Yeah, birds are moving over the mid-Atlantic tonight. There appears to be a > nice flight over the Delmarva Peninsula and into New Jersey, with less > movement over coastal NC and heavy movement out of Raleigh/Durham, NC and > Norfolk, VA. We should see a more widespread push over the weekend and into > next week when southwesterly flow connects the Gulf states with the > mid-Atlantic... this should be part of the winter-cleaning, but will > probably bring more solid numbers of early migrants wintering in the > southern states (Yellow-throated and Pine warblers, as well as LA > Waterthrush, to name a few). > > Good Listening! > > David > > ps. I'll be posting the overnight radar to www.woodcreeper.com most > mornings by 7:00am EST. > ____________________________________________________ > David A. La Puma > Villas, NJ > > Websites: > http://www.woodcreeper.com > http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com > > Photos: > http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper > > > > > > > > On Wed, Mar 17, 2010 at 8:30 PM, Andy Martin <[email protected]>wrote: > >> Andrew, >> >> I think certain early migrating species might take advantage of tonight's >> weather conditions. There has not been a night like this around my house in >> many weeks. Although NWS here in Washington DC region only has wind out of a >> southerly component for 3 hrs before switching back to north by early >> morning >> >> I recorded last night from 11:45 PM to 6 AM and had the following: >> >> Song Sparrow 3-4 >> Savannah Sparrow 2 >> Ring-billed Gull 1 >> Canada Goose flock >> Tundra Swan (sounded like only a few birds) >> Possible Barn Owl >> >> I will be recording tonight. West winds are usually quietest nights around >> my area because it tamps down the auto noise from Interstate 270. >> >> Andy Martin >> Gaithersburg, MD >> [email protected] >> >> >> On 3/17/2010 7:57 PM, Andrew Albright wrote: >> >>> Is this too early for a big NF in the mid-atlantic region? >>> >>> Are these the main factors? >>> 1) Date during migration season (higher numbers during peak) >>> 2) What has happened during previous nights - i.e. if the wind was >>> blowing strongly in the wrong direction or >>> 3) Wind speed and direction >>> >>> It should have been backed up recently with all the rain and northern >>> winds. Wind is out of the WSW tonight. But, is it still to early for >>> a big spring NFC? >>> >>> Andrew Albright >>> Lafayette Hill, PA >>> >>> -- >>> >>> NFC-L List Info: >>> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME >>> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES >>> >>> ARCHIVES: >>> 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/maillist.html >>> 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html >>> 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L >>> >>> Please submit your observations to eBird: >>> http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ >>> >>> -- >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> >> NFC-L List Info: >> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME >> http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES >> >> ARCHIVES: >> 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/maillist.html >> 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html >> 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L >> >> Please submit your observations to eBird: >> http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ >> >> -- >> > > -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/maillist.html 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
