Ohya. Please all take a cautious tone untuk rilis H1. dont get overexpected with its figures yah.
Indikasinya Volume Produksi H1 09 26-27 Juta Ton.(H1 08 28 Juta Ton.) atau Q2 09 kira2 14-15 Juta Ton tapi memang trennya sedikit akselerasi dari angka produksi Q1 yg cuma 12 Juta Ton ASP Q1 tinggi di $75/Ton, tapi angka ASP untuk Full Year 09 kemungkinan di kisaran $ 60/Ton, mmg tren harga coal agak kurang baik akhir-akhir ini. 100 Mn Tonne Production Level in 2012, lets hope 1,9 Bio USD will be used for achieving that promises target If 2009 Production Is Only 55 - 60 Mn Tonne, It Would Take A Lot Lot Lot Effort To Catch-Up the 100 Mn Tonne Promises. 2009/9/24 <vaulst...@yahoo.com> > > > Kelihatannya akan ada banyak akusisi ini itu... Tau donk hobi nya BUMI... > > Tambang emas? > > Sent from my BlackBerry® > powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT > ------------------------------ > *From: *Bagus Putra Perdana <disclosure....@gmail.com> > *Date: *Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:31:40 +0700 > *To: *<obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> > *Subject: *Re: [ob] bumi > > > > Penggunaannya Pak? wah entahlah, saya jg masih figuring, i personally > hope its mostly for coal related production. > > thats huge pak, 1.9 Bio USD dengan pembayaran coupon 12 %. efek jangka > pendeknya aja bakal langsung mukul EBIT BUMI secara lumayan signifikan. > meski market wise efek warran jg jadi sentimen push harga keatas. > > kalo digunakan bener buat coal dan produksi sih bagus yah. bikin fasilitas > dan beli alat, sewa kontraktor untuk target kontrak kupas tanah yg jauh > lebih besar. > > hanya kalo digunakan buat CA, agak bingung jg mo kemana, size sebesar itu > buat CA apa? target yg mana? coal lagi? Berau kah? ato yg laen? newmont? > aset coal lahai billiton? entahlah, yg jelas akuisisi baru bisa create > positive economic value buat shareholder kalo dia bisa generate ROIC diatas > 12 %. > > tapi bukannya BUMI kurang aset potensial buat dikembangin jg sih kalo dia > buat bener mau CA akuisisi. lah Herald dan lain-lain aja jg belon masuk > produksi. KPC aja masih bisa buka Pit baru. I would raised my eyebrows if > they would do another reckless acquisition after what they had done with > herald. clearly un-wise. > > > i have no further elaboration pak, mungkin master oen yg bisa lebih jago > nebak plot story BUMI skrg. kemungkinannya sih pola kaya gini baru awal dari > serangkaian CA ke depan. terlepas CA ini akan create value ato cuman sekedar > aksi akrobatik aja. > > 1.9 Bn is huge, there will be following stories comin after that. we can be > sure of that. > > 2009/9/24 Vernichtung <gambler....@gmail.com> > >> >> >> Saya jadi ingin tahu apakah CA yg sifatnya sangat material ini sudah >> mendapat persetujuan dari RUPS/LB? Kok beritanya baru terdengar sekarang ya >> (saya cari2 tidak ada info sebelumnya), maaf saya tidak pernah ikut RUPS/LB >> BUMI jadi tidak pernah tahu, tolong info/pencerahannya dari yg sudah >> mengikuti RUPS/LB BUMI yg terakhir. Thanks. >> >> Menurut tebakan kang Ocoy kemana nih arah penggunaan dana USD 1.9 B ini, >> atau tidak ada gambaran samasekali? Saat ini saya tidak pegang BUMI sama >> sekali tapi kalau arahnya positif (secara FA) mungkin akan siap2 tapi kalau >> negatif mau dilupakan saja. >> >> >> On Thu, Sep 24, 2009 at 5:59 PM, Bagus Putra Perdana < >> disclosure....@gmail.com> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> False Logic Brother. Liabilities itu bagian dari Aset jg. Liabilities >>> nambah maka Aset jg nambah, 1.9 Bio USD ini akan bertransformasi dr bentuk >>> kas ke modal kerja atau ke fixed asset atau ke akuisisi non hard-assets yg >>> menambah intangibles. >>> >>> unik juga sebenernya manuver ini, sayang belon ada detail yg dikasih ke >>> Publik. Sitting and existing credit fascilities yg dipegang BUMI saat ini >>> rata2 LIBOR + 2,5 - 3.5 %. clearly pergantian ke 12 % coupon gak akan banyak >>> restrukturisasi keuangan BUMI. paling enggak dr sisi profitabilitas. >>> >>> Buat TATA gak akan ada masalah sih krn mereka masuk lewat KPC dan >>> Arutminnya, sementara CIC kasih debt ke BUMI. buat exisiting shareholder >>> harusnya ada keterangan yg dikasih dulu krn 1.9 Bio USD ini jumlahnya >>> material baik dr sisi balance dan P & L. ini akan makan Earning Before Taxes >>> yg jadi jatah pemegang ekuitas, lagipula biasanya kreditur selalu maen aman >>> dan minta jaminan, fasilitas credit suisse dulu minta jaminannya aset >>> terlancar dari BUMI yaitu Piutang Usaha BUMI. >>> >>> Aset BUMI jadi terkesan rada artificial, Kas dan Aset akan meningkat di >>> akhir tahun signifikan, tapi datangnya mostly dari debt addition yg tranche >>> pembayaran pokoknya 4-6 tahun dr skrg. >>> >>> Interest Expense pada tahun keuangan 2008 adalah 43 Juta USD (Net stlh >>> Interest Paid Dari Akun kas Bank) dgn total outstanding debt sekitar 1,3 Bio >>> USD, sebagian debt baru masuk di semester akhir sih. tapi acuan dr q1 09 aja >>> beban bunga sekitar 21 Juta dari outstanding 1,3 Bio kalo di annualized >>> kira2 100 Juta USD untuk 1,3 Bio. clearly below 12 % interest Coupon >>> payment. so where goes the Restructuring Part of the deal?. >>> >>> >>> 1,9 Bio Is A Huge Amount, Damocles Sword Must Be Placed On BUMI's board >>> management Office. >>> >>> if they can use it properly, it'd surely unleash some good story. >>> >>> come to think of it, wont be such easy tasks to do so. >>> >>> 12 % Cost of 1.9 Bio equal 230 Mn P/A, applying Operating Margin Of 35 %, >>> they needed to booked a minimum extra 650 Mn Revenue To Neutralized the >>> effect of the debt payment to the shareholders bottom-line. >>> >>> At Current Coal Price outlook, a 650 Mn extra Revenue would be a roughly >>> equal to minimumm addition 8-9 Mn Tonne P/A Production starts from 1st >>> coupon payment schedule >>> >>> Thats Quite ThroatGasping. Or Perhaps only this kind of burden on >>> Management's weigh could push the management go faster on >>> production-addition related decision?!. surely put more pressure on it. They >>> SHOULD mainly use the Cash For Production related Decision. >>> >>> If They Can Assure Us Its Going to be used for Good ROIC generator, it >>> would be a mind relievin. surely. >>> >>> Public Shareholder Should Placed An Officer in the management to ensured >>> this would be done properly. >>> >>> if not, hefty consequences, BUMI's Financial quality would be >>> deteriorating and cash burn will likely to shows upcoming years >>> >>> >>> what do u say El? this CIC Inception? Pro or Cons? >>> >>> i wish they'll use the money not for another acquisitions and >>> market-related actions... >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> > > > -- > Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the > complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, > everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that > we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only > to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all > knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. > - Richard Feynman > > > -- Each piece, or part, of the whole nature is always an approximation to the complete truth, or the complete truth so far as we know it. In fact, everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws as yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected.......The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific “truth”. - Richard Feynman
