Pentax claim their shake reduction is worth "2.5 to 4 stops". Some
Canon ads describe some of their lenses as having "3-stop" or
"4-stop"  IS.

Are these claims anywhere near believable? What are actual users
of K100D or K10D finding?

If those claims are real, then an F 2.8 lens with three-stops of extra
tolerance for low light will (in some ways) match an F 1.0 lens. Wow!
Even if it is only one stop, or 1.5, that's still a very useful gain.

If Pentax's "2.5 to 4 stops" claim is accurate, then like a Sigma
18-50/2.8 zoom (equivalent to 28-75 on 35mm) then becomes
awfully attractive. That one lens could handle nearly all of the
shots I take.

If the claim is accurate, then even a fairly slow lens like the
Pentax 20-35 F4 becomes quite usable in low light.

What if you use a fast lens? An F 1.2 prime plus the claimed 2.5-4
stops gives F 0.5 or better. Even a 1.8 becomes remarkably good
in low light.

Or is this all just too good to be true?

Yes, I do realise that a shake reduction system will neither allow fast
shutter speeds for stopping motion nor give the reduced depth of field
that a fast lens will. Also, that no magic is going to make a poor lens
perform like a top-of-the-line one, or a zoom like a good prime, in
sharpness, color rendition, etc.

But, given a decent lens, what sort of low light performance should
one expect?

-- 
Sandy Harris
Quanzhou, Fujian, China

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