Hi, I would have expected progressive economists to stop using mindlessly the unemployment measure all the time, but this obviously didn't happen: my posts here and blog post are still alone in questionning this ultimate faith in the sole and exclusive use of "unemployment measure" for anything economics, eg:
http://guerby.org/blog/index.php/2009/01/24/193-l-inexorable-ascension-de-la-population-sans-emploi-aux-usa But here is some awesome news: the first mainstream economist to use a more robust measure to describe the current situation is ... Larry Summers! Surprising quote today in Davos: http://blogs.wsj.com/davos/2010/01/30/summers-statistical-recovery-and-human-recession/ << Key Obama economic adviser Larry Summers coined a telling way to look at the current American economic state of play. He said the U.S. is experiencing a “statistical recovery and a human recession.” It is a phrase that should resonate through much of the industrial world, where high and long-standing unemployment is increasingly becoming a huge domestic political issue. Speaking on a panel at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Summers said one in five American men aged 25 to 54 are unemployed. He said given a “reasonable recovery,” that rate could improve to one in seven or one in eight. That still contrasts with a 95% employment rate for that group in the mid-1960s. He said the U.S. can gain from increased global integration, but if it is to be politically sustainable it “has to work for people.” That means job creation in the U.S. is a crucial issue. >> Here is the december updated graph for men 25-54, from BLS not seasonally adjusted data: http://guerby.org/images/bls-men-25-54-200912.png Last point is 19.7% not working in december 2009: 12.2 millions men aged 25-54 out of 62.1 millions civilian non institutional population. If it follows usual seasonal patterns it will climb in january and february above 20%. I didn't graph the "part time" jobs (under 35 hours/week) but the serie starts in 1986 around 4% and peaks in december 2009 (last point) at 6.5% of population for male 25-54. Also women 25-54 not working is 30.9% in december 2009: 19.6 millions women aged 25 to 54 out of 63.5 millions. It's the not working level of march 1988 for this population. All other category of population are doing worse of course, so 20% jobless is a minimum. Who will dare follow Larry Summers and publish something for once questionning the unemployment measure? Sincerely, Laurent On Tue, 2010-01-12 at 21:55 +0100, Laurent GUERBY wrote: > Hi, > > And for a better picture of the work market use men 25-54 year old > category from BLS, a 1948-2009 graph here: > > http://guerby.org/images/bls-men-25-54-200912.png > > Last point is 19.7% not working in december 2009: 12.2 millions men aged > 25-54 out of 62.1 millions civilian non institutional population. If it > follows usual seasonal patterns it will climb in january and february > above 20%. > > I didn't graph the "part time" jobs (under 35 hours/week) but the serie > starts in 1986 around 4% and peaks in december 2009 (last point) at 6.5% > of population for male 25-54. > > Also women 25-54 not working is 30.9% in december 2009: 19.6 millions > women aged 25 to 54 out of 63.5 millions. It's the not working level of > march 1988 for this population. > > Laurent _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
