Ron wrote: >> Theory is necessary to make good decisions, but the choice seems to be between informal and formal theories. Theories strip out the irrelevant to make reality manageable. <<
I agree. "formal" theories are models, which use math, formal logic, graphs, and the like to express and clarify "informal" theories. >> The word "metaphor" usually involves making an analogy which may give imprecise results.It is better to use the concept of "model" where precise factors can be postulated.<< all theories are imprecise, though some are more so than others. I like to separate the concept of a "theory" (a general description of posited causation and the like) from a "model," which is a logically more precise statement of a theory used to clarify thought and to communicate with others. (This differs from the neoclassical economists' common conflation of a "theory" with a "model." Decades ago, I told one of my fellow graduate students that I was working on the theory of fixed investment behavior in macroeconomics and he said "there already is a theory of investment." What is it? I asked. "The flexible accelerator." But that's just a formalization of the reasonable theory that fixed investment decisions take time to implement. It's not a theory itself.) -- Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante.
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