Cute title
MuseLetter #185 / September 2007
by Richard Heinberg
Peak Everything
Note: This issue is an edited version of the Introduction to Peak
Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines.
During the past few years the phrase Peak Oil has entered the global
lexicon. It refers to the moment in time when the world will achieve
its maximum possible rate of oil extraction; from then on, for reasons
having mostly to do with geology, the amount of petroleum available to
society on a daily or yearly basis will begin to dwindle. Most
informed analysts agree that this will happen during the next two or
three decades; an increasing number believe that it is happening now -
that conventional oil production peaked in 2005–2006 and that the flow
to market of all hydrocarbon liquids taken together will start to
diminish around 2010.1 The consequences, as they begin to accumulate,
are likely to be severe: the world is overwhelmingly dependent on oil
for transportation, agriculture, plastics, and chemicals; thus a
lengthy process of adjustment will be required. According to one
recent U.S. government-sponsored study, if the peak does occur soon
replacements are unlikely to appear quickly enough and in sufficient
quantity to avert what it calls "unprecedented" social, political, and
economic impacts.2
This book is not an introduction to the subject of Peak Oil; several
existing volumes serve that function (including my own The Party's
Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies).3 Instead it
addresses the social and historical context in which the event is
occurring, and explores how we can reorganize our thinking and action
in several critical areas in order to better navigate this perilous
time.
Our socio-historical context takes some time and perspective to
appreciate. Upon first encountering Peak Oil, most people tend to
assume it is merely a single isolated problem to which there is a
simple solution - whether of an eco-friendly nature (more renewable
energy) or otherwise (more coal). But prolonged reflection and study
tend to eat away at the viability of such "solutions"; meanwhile, as
one contemplates how we humans have so quickly become so deeply
dependent on the cheap, concentrated energy of oil and other fossil
fuels, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we have caught
ourselves on the horns of the Universal Ecological Dilemma, consisting
of the interlinked elements of population pressure, resource
depletion, and habitat destruction - and on a scale unprecedented in
history.
Petroleum is not the only important resource quickly depleting.
Readers already acquainted with the Peak Oil literature know that
regional production peaks for natural gas have already occurred, and
that, over the short term, the economic consequences of gas shortages
are likely to be even worse for Europeans and North Americans than
those for oil. And while coal is often referred to as being an
abundant fossil fuel, with reserves capable of supplying the world at
current rates of usage for two hundred years into the future, a recent
study updating global reserves and production forecasts concludes that
global coal production will peak and begin to decline in ten to twenty
years.4 Because fossil fuels supply about 85 percent of the world's
total energy, peaks in these fuels virtually ensure that the world's
energy supply will begin to shrink within a few years regardless of
any efforts that are made to develop other energy sources.
Nor does the matter end with natural gas and coal. Once one lifts
one's eyes from the narrow path of daily survival activities and
starts scanning the horizon, a frightening array of peaks comes into
view. In the course of the present century we will see an end to
growth and a commencement of decline in all of these parameters:
* Population
* Grain production (total and per capita)
* Uranium production
* Climate stability
* Fresh water availability per capita
* Arable land in agricultural production
* Wild fish harvests
* Yearly extraction of some metals and minerals (including copper,
platinum, silver, gold, and zinc)
The point of this book is not systematically to go through these
peak-and-decline scenarios one by one, offering evidence and pointing
out the consequences - though that is a worthwhile exercise. Some of
these peaks are more speculative than others: fish harvests are
already in decline, so this one is hardly arguable; however,
projecting extraction peaks and declines for some metals requires
extrapolating current rising rates of usage many decades into the
future.5 The problem of uranium supply beyond mid-century is well
attested by studies, but has not received sufficient public
attention.6
Nevertheless, the general picture is inescapable; it is one of
mutually interacting instances of over-consumption and emerging
scarcity.
In full:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/richard_heinbergs_museletter_peak_everything
