Jim, obviously rising prices are part of the peak oil story. I assumed everyone understood it.
I don't see any question about the inevitability of peak oil -- just the timing. In our discussions, the same names come up -- Hubbard, Deffeyes -- people argue whether they are (un)reliable sources or not. For that reason, I suggested that the discussion might not be productive unless we have new information. On Sat, Sep 08, 2007 at 02:08:32PM -0700, Jim Devine wrote: > On 9/8/07, Michael Perelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > We have been over this ground many times. > > Right. But I don't see any problem in discussing it. > > > Peak oil is a prediction and a certainty. > > No it isn't. It's a little like the story of Achilles and the > tortoise, with A never actually catching up with the T. But it's more > real-world and not based on a logical fallacy. The higher oil prices > get relative to other fuels, the more users will substitute for oil -- > or economize on its use -- and the more economies will slow down. All > of that means that the demand for oil and petro-products will slow, > keeping oil prices from going up too far. There are economic forces > keeping A from catching up with the T. (High prices also encourage > more exploration for oil, more efficient use of currently-known > reserves, and the like, but I ignored that in order to take the > absolute limit on the supply side as a premise.) > > If we actually "run out of oil" (or, much more likely, get somewhere > closer to that), it won't be because of the natural limits on the > supply of oil. Instead it will happen because of the "natural" > tendency for capitalism to surge ahead, to go too far, to > over-accumulate capital. > > As I've said before, I _hope_ the available supply of oil has attained > its peak. That is, I hope that the supply has become extremely > inelastic both in the short-run and the long-run. That would encourage > substitution and economizing. It might even stop global warming in its > tracks. Those are things we need to do to help us minimize the extent > of global warming. > > In fact, high oil prices should be made artificially higher, by > raising taxes on oil. This must be linked with refundable tax credits > for the poor and/or mass investment in mass transit. > > > We as economists should know that some things are inevitable -- depleting a > > fixed > > stock will eventually create a peak, but we have no real proof of the exact > > time. > > I don't think so. See above. It's not nature that messes up our lives. > Rather, it's capitalism (and other class modes of production) which > misuses nature and misuses people. > -- > Jim Devine / "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not > an act, but a habit." -- Aristotle. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu michaelperelman.wordpress.com
