Indeed. Or read how Deffeyes, Laherrere, etc. manipulate, actually distort, rates of recovery, discovery dates and field size to create the mythology of declining reserves, and smaller fields...
Or we can just point out how even the peak oil theorists have been forced to revise upward their estimates of reserves, and push out the date of the impending crisis... It's not science, it's not historical, social "economic" analysis-- what is it? Ideology. A platform (sic!) designed to serve a specific purpose by subsituting a religious faith for actual investigation. Which is why I suggest we relegate it to the 9/11 off-limits territory as it becomes and requires cult like thinking. Weknow what that ideological purpose is.. more than austerity for more than many-- immiseration for almost all, with financial liberty and just us for the fewer than few. And that is why peak oil is a crisis upon us, but global warming? Where's the profit in that, in reversing that? ----- Original Message ----- From: "Eugene Coyle" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Saturday, September 08, 2007 1:14 PM Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Peak Everything Reading Heinberg, I've been struck by how shallow his knowledge of the oil and gas business is -- and that is his purported specialty. But what strikes me about his judgement is his assessment that peak oil is a crisis already upon us while global warming is something that might occur in a century or so. That is bizarre, for surely the situation is the reverse. Gene Coyle On Sep 8, 2007, at 9:01 AM, The Buffalo In Da' Midst wrote: > Cute title > > MuseLetter #185 / September 2007 > by Richard Heinberg > > Peak Everything > > Note: This issue is an edited version of the Introduction to Peak > Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines. > > During the past few years the phrase Peak Oil has entered the global > lexicon. It refers to the moment in time when the world will achieve > its maximum possible rate of oil extraction; from then on, for reasons > having mostly to do with geology, the amount of petroleum available to > society on a daily or yearly basis will begin to dwindle. Most > informed analysts agree that this will happen during the next two or > three decades; an increasing number believe that it is happening now - > that conventional oil production peaked in 2005–2006 and that the flow > to market of all hydrocarbon liquids taken together will start to > diminish around 2010.1 The consequences, as they begin to accumulate, > are likely to be severe: the world is overwhelmingly dependent on oil > for transportation, agriculture, plastics, and chemicals; thus a > lengthy process of adjustment will be required. According to one > recent U.S. government-sponsored study, if the peak does occur soon > replacements are unlikely to appear quickly enough and in sufficient > quantity to avert what it calls "unprecedented" social, political, and > economic impacts.2 > > This book is not an introduction to the subject of Peak Oil; several > existing volumes serve that function (including my own The Party's > Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies).3 Instead it > addresses the social and historical context in which the event is > occurring, and explores how we can reorganize our thinking and action > in several critical areas in order to better navigate this perilous > time. > > Our socio-historical context takes some time and perspective to > appreciate. Upon first encountering Peak Oil, most people tend to > assume it is merely a single isolated problem to which there is a > simple solution - whether of an eco-friendly nature (more renewable > energy) or otherwise (more coal). But prolonged reflection and study > tend to eat away at the viability of such "solutions"; meanwhile, as > one contemplates how we humans have so quickly become so deeply > dependent on the cheap, concentrated energy of oil and other fossil > fuels, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we have caught > ourselves on the horns of the Universal Ecological Dilemma, consisting > of the interlinked elements of population pressure, resource > depletion, and habitat destruction - and on a scale unprecedented in > history. > > Petroleum is not the only important resource quickly depleting. > Readers already acquainted with the Peak Oil literature know that > regional production peaks for natural gas have already occurred, and > that, over the short term, the economic consequences of gas shortages > are likely to be even worse for Europeans and North Americans than > those for oil. And while coal is often referred to as being an > abundant fossil fuel, with reserves capable of supplying the world at > current rates of usage for two hundred years into the future, a recent > study updating global reserves and production forecasts concludes that > global coal production will peak and begin to decline in ten to twenty > years.4 Because fossil fuels supply about 85 percent of the world's > total energy, peaks in these fuels virtually ensure that the world's > energy supply will begin to shrink within a few years regardless of > any efforts that are made to develop other energy sources. > > Nor does the matter end with natural gas and coal. Once one lifts > one's eyes from the narrow path of daily survival activities and > starts scanning the horizon, a frightening array of peaks comes into > view. In the course of the present century we will see an end to > growth and a commencement of decline in all of these parameters: > > * Population > * Grain production (total and per capita) > * Uranium production > * Climate stability > * Fresh water availability per capita > * Arable land in agricultural production > * Wild fish harvests > * Yearly extraction of some metals and minerals (including copper, > platinum, silver, gold, and zinc) > > The point of this book is not systematically to go through these > peak-and-decline scenarios one by one, offering evidence and pointing > out the consequences - though that is a worthwhile exercise. Some of > these peaks are more speculative than others: fish harvests are > already in decline, so this one is hardly arguable; however, > projecting extraction peaks and declines for some metals requires > extrapolating current rising rates of usage many decades into the > future.5 The problem of uranium supply beyond mid-century is well > attested by studies, but has not received sufficient public > attention.6 > > Nevertheless, the general picture is inescapable; it is one of > mutually interacting instances of over-consumption and emerging > scarcity. > > In full: http://globalpublicmedia.com/ > richard_heinbergs_museletter_peak_everything
