What you say will not affect my point. Plot the level extraction over time, even if 1/4 of a gallon is left untouched. There will necessarily be some peak point in time. Admittedly, if the peak is less than 1/4 gallon, it is possible that one final rush of extraction of the last remaining 1/4 gallon in a single period could create a new future peak, but in any case, a peak is a certainty (although 2 or more periods) could be in a tie as peak periods).
On Sat, Sep 08, 2007 at 03:18:01PM -0700, Jim Devine wrote: > On 9/8/07, Michael Perelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Assume, for the sake of argument that you know the total quantity available > > -- let's > > say it's a gallon. Each period you remove some until you reach some point > > where it > > is uneconomical to continue. At some point, you reach a peak. Of course, > > it is > > probable that the decline will not be monotonic, but the peak will remain > > the peak. > > what if the amount you take out gets smaller and smaller over time, as > the price rises? that is, as it slowly becomes "uneconomical" to take > oil out of this fixed pool, people find substitutes for oil and figure > out how to use oil more efficiently (driving Priuses, etc.) With > increases in efficiency, the pool of oil may be constant or shrink, > but the effective benefit received can increase. > > the issue about the meaning of inevitability is crucial. Sure, the > collapse of capitalism is "inevitable," since the system is > anti-human. It will kill either itself or humanity. If the latter > goes, so does capitalism. QED. > > However, there are _counteracting forces_ which should always be > remembered. Abstract tendencies can be expressed very differently in > practice. > -- > Jim Devine / "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not > an act, but a habit." -- Aristotle. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail michael at ecst.csuchico.edu michaelperelman.wordpress.com
