Michael: > Leigh, this is not real information. To have a reporter say that > someone says something is happening does not always convey anything > new. In this case it did not
Of course it is real information. It is real in the sense that the article Leigh sent appeared on CNN. Now, does the appearence of this article on CNN mean that we will reach the oil peak in the next few years? Probably not! But, sooner or later, that day will come. I do not understand what the issue is. Is it that there will never come a day when the oil production will peak? I make a bet for a trillion dollars: one day in the future the oil production will peak. Are there any takers of the opposite side? I tell you, if there are any takers, I am guaranteed that I will not lose any money in this bet and have a chance to make a trillion dollars with positive probability, depending on when I die, which is also a probabilistic event of the future, which includes the current time, since now is the begining of the future. This is called arbitrage of the first type in the finance jargon, if I can find a taker of the opposite side, of course. It is all about the survival probabilities and how they are estimated. Best, Sabri ____________________________________________________________________________________ Building a website is a piece of cake. Yahoo! Small Business gives you all the tools to get online. http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/webhosting
